Ever since the COVID-19 pandemic shut down theatres in 2020, exhibitors have been measuring the current year’s box office against 2019 levels. For many, a return to the box office grosses of yesteryear was the marker of a “full recovery” from the pandemic’s disruptions. For reference, the annual domestic box office grosses of 2019 were $11.7 billion, and 2024 came in at $8.1 billion, or roughly 70% of the earlier total.
Along the way, the timeline to achieve that mark has shifted back, and then back again. Even after the pandemic, a series of unforeseen and unfortunate events continued to hold back moviegoing. Most notably, the dual labor strikes in the second half of 2023 by Hollywood’s writers and actors caused massive disruptions to new film production. The wildfires that raged across Los Angeles at the beginning of 2025 did not help matters.
This week, research and accounting firm PwC published a new report that forecasted the financial outlook for the industry in the years ahead. It concludes that after five years of slow but steady growth, box office grosses will approach 2019 levels by the year 2029, with the potential for 2030 to be “the year” when the industry returns to pre-pandemic levels.
PwC’s report points to some factors that are holding back the sector and others that demonstrate its underlying strength. It noted that studios have “largely discarded” the practice of day & date releasing, which some studios tried out in the early days of the pandemic. Instead, virtually all studios have recommitted to launching their big new movies with an exclusive, theatrical release.
It states that studios now consider this to be the “most reliable way to drive ancillary sales.” Box office is expected to increase by an average of 3.9% over the next five years, with gradual increases in both ticket prices and attendance. PwC’s report also points out the increasing market share being taken up by IMAX and other Premium Large Format screens.
Exhibitors who have upgraded their facilities with luxury seating and extensive concession options have put themselves in the best position to succeed over the coming years. Frequent moviegoers will also be attracted to theatres offering extra value through their loyalty and subscription programs.
