Weekend 9/22-9/24: THE NUN 2 Works a Miracle to Hold onto First Place
After a soft box office last weekend, this weekend did not fare much better. On the bright side, we expect that next weekend will see a bounce back in moviegoing when four new wide release movies arrive in theatres.
Lionsgate’s EXPEND4BLES was the only major new opener this weekend and as such it was supposed to beat up the other titles. Alas, it was not strong enough even to take first place, earning only $8.3M in its opening three days. The only other new movie to play at over 1,000 locations was Neon’s horror flick IT LIVES INSIDE, which disappointed with $2.6M and a seventh-place finish.
This weekend was the fifth consecutive weekend of declining box office, with $51.7M for all movies across U.S. and Canadian theatres. On this same weekend last year, the total box office was $63.0M, led by $19.4M for DON’T WORRY DARLING in its first weekend.
Miraculously, THE NUN 2 took first place for the third consecutive weekend with $8.4M. The horror sequel has become the most successful film so far this year in the post-Labor Day period. After dropping only 42% from last weekend, it will continue to play broadly over the next several weeks. THE NUN II has brought in $69.2M over 17 days, and we project that it will wind up its run with around $84M in the domestic market and $220M worldwide. Considering a production cost of $38M, its multiple of worldwide box office to production cost will wind up at 5.7, which is more than twice the 2.5 ratio that is the standard for a movie to break even. We expect that Warner Bros. will be greenlighting more NUN movies in the years ahead.
EXPEND4BLES finished in an embarrassing second place with an anemic $8.3M. This is the fourth movie in the EXPENDIBLES series and, in all probability, it will be the last. Stallone gets the outcasts together again, armed to the teeth to form the world’s last line of defense. As most critics have pointed out, it is almost impossible to distinguish the plot among the four EXPENDIBLES movies. Based on these results, it does not take a specialist to see that this patient is on its last legs.
A Financial History of EXPENDIBLES Movies
EXPENDIBLES (8/12/2010)
* Rated R, Rotten Tomatoes Critics 41% / Audience 64%
* Opening Weekend $34.8M, Total Domestic $103.1M, Total Worldwide $274.5M
* Production Budget $80M, Gross to Budget Ratio 3.4
EXPENDIBLES 2 (8/17/2012)
* Rated R, Rotten Tomatoes Critics 67% / Audience 67%
* Opening Weekend $28.6M, Total Domestic $85.1M, Total Worldwide $315.0M
* Production Budget $100M, Gross to Budget Ratio 3.2
EXPENDIBLES 3 (8/14/2014)
* Rated PG-13, Rotten Tomatoes Critics 31% / Audience 48%
* Opening Weekend $15.9M, Total Domestic $39.3M, Total Worldwide $214.7M
* Production Budget $100M, Gross to Budget Ratio 2.1
EXPEND4BLES (9/22/2023)
* Rated R, Rotten Tomatoes Critics 16% / Audience 69%
* Opening Weekend $8.3M
* Production Budget $100M
By earning $8.3M in its first weekend, Movie #4 started off at only 52% of Movie #3, which itself only produced $15.9M when it opened nine years ago. It has also received a series low critics’ score on Rotten Tomatoes, coming in at only 16%. Splat!
Lionsgate’s decision with EXPENDIBLES 3 to tamp down the violence to earn a PG-13 rating was intended to broaden the appeal of the franchise, but it may backfired by disappointing the core audience who had reveled in the blood and guts. EXPENDIBLES 3 earned a low 48% audience rating on Rotten Tomatoes, significantly down from the first two pictures. Only two years later, EXPENDABLES 3 suffered a one-third drop in worldwide gross in comparison with the series leader EXPENDIBLES 2. After having been profitable with the first two movies, the EXPENDABLES 3 dipped into the red.
TV and radio spots emphasized that EXPEND4BLES had returned to its R-rating, hoping to recapture its core action audience. Unfortunately, in the nine years since the last movie the appetite to see Stallone and Statham in this sequel may have faded.
20th Century’s A HAUNTING IN VENICE fell to third place with a gross of $6.3M, a drop of 56% from last weekend. After missing out on first place in its opening weekend, the Kenneth Branagh whodunnit based on a novel by Agatha Christie has now earned $25.4M after ten days, roughly the same as DEATH ON THE NILE which had earned $25.3M at this same point. Last week, we commented that the marketing for this movie de-emphasized its origin as an Agatha Christie novel in favor of promoting it as a supernatural horror film. The rationale was to attract new audiences who might not turn out for another movie based on a Christie novel. In the end, it seems that neither group was much interested, despite the fact that critics have rated A HAUNTING IN VENICE a fresh 76% on Rotten Tomatoes, the best of the three Branagh-Christie films. By next weekend, it will get crowded out with four new wide release titles arriving in theatres.
THE EQUALIZER 3 dropped down to fourth place by earning $4.7M, a slim decline of only 35% from last weekend. This EQUALIZER movie is following the same box office track as the two earlier films from the trilogy, with a chance that it will wind up with a domestic gross that is slightly higher than EQUALIZER 2’s $102.1M from 2018.
BARBIE finished fifth for the third consecutive weekend, taking an additional $3.2M, a decline of only 16% from last weekend. This lifts its domestic total to an amazing $630.5M after ten weeks. Grosses were helped by some IMAX screens coming back to BARBIE, since there is not much competition for the large format at this time. Director Greta Gerwig was involved in the IMAX push, saying that if you liked BARBIE on a standard cinema screen before, you’d like it even more now in IMAX.
| Rank | Title (Distributor) | Week | # Theatres | Weekend $ | Per Theatre Average $ | Total $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Nun II (Warner Bros.) | 3 | 3,536 | $8,400,000 | $2,376 | $55,733,336 |
| 2 | Expend4bles (Lionsgate) | 1 | 3,518 | $8,300,000 | $2,359 | $8,300,000 |
| 3 | A Haunting in Venice (20th Century Studios) | 2 | 3,305 | $6,300,000 | $1,906 | $20,800,000 |
| 4 | The Equalizer 3 (Sony Pictures Entertainment (SPE)) | 4 | 3,273 | $4,725,000 | $1,444 | $58,567,186 |
| 5 | Barbie (Warner Bros.) | 10 | 2,634 | $3,200,000 | $1,215 | $400,948,615 |
WGA & Studio CEOs to Meet again Friday; Guild Urges Members to Get Out on Picket Lines in Force
There was some progress this week towards resolving the ongoing dispute between Hollywood’s writers and studios. On Wednesday, negotiators from the WGA and AMPTP met for the first time since August. At the end of the day, a simple joint statement was issued that the parties had met, which would continue the following day.
While it may seem unremarkable, this was the first joint statement issued by the parties during the four-and-one-half-month-old walkout. In a dispute defined by contentiousness, this simple, joint statement can be seen as a promising sign.
Some media outlets even speculated that it was a sign that a final deal was near at hand. Moreover, once a settlement is reached between the studios and writers, the parallel strike between the studios and actors may also be close.
If it lasts two more weeks, the current strike will become the longest in Hollywood history and has begun to negatively impact the entire industry.
See also: Can New Talks End the Writers Strike Fast? Optimism, the Sequel! (Vanity Fair)
Amazon Plans Commercial Breaks for Prime Video
Next month, Amazon Prime memberships will begin to include access to Prime Video with advertising breaks. Ad-averse subscribers will have the option to pay an additional $2.99/month to forgo the commercials.
Amazon joins almost every other streaming platform in bringing advertisers to their platform, following in the footsteps of Disney’s Disney+, WBD’s Max, and Netflix. As with the others, Amazon had highlighted its ad-free entertainment when it launched Prime Video. Now, advertising on streaming platforms is seen as a natural evolution for streaming as it grows at the expense of linear cable and broadcast TV channels.
At most traditional media companies, profits are withering from once-lucrative cable deals while costs are exploding to build and maintain direct consumer streaming services. Alas, it has become clear that subscriber fees alone will not be sufficient to achieve profitability, leading to the introduction of advertising, as a tried-and-true income stream for entertainment channels.
As streaming rates are rising, it is increasingly clear that streaming is becoming the new cable. For the time being, Prime Video’s ad-supported tier is still free – with your Amazon Prime membership – and will include only four minutes of advertising per hour.
But it’s almost certain that costs and the amount of advertising will increase over time, as Amazon tries to offset ballooning costs to produce original series such as ‘Citadel’ and ‘The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power’ and media rights to broadcast NFL Thursday Night Football for a hefty $1 billion annually for the next 11 years.
See also: Did Amazon Just Overpay for ‘Thursday Night Football’? (The Motley Fool)
Taylor Swift Was Able to Make Her Eras Tour Movie Mid-Strike by Doing Everything Hollywood Won’t: Actually Meeting Unions’ Demands
The buzz continues to grow around Taylor Swift’s ‘Eras’ concert movie, with current projections pointing to an opening weekend gross of $100M-$125M, easily the highest-grossing opening weekend ever for a concert film.
Swift has a gift for performance and promotion, with the movie edition of the record-breaking ‘Eras’ tour as her latest accomplishment. What’s more, she was able to pull off filming the concert in the midst of the actors’ strike, by negotiating a special agreement with the SAG-AFTRA union that met the union’s open demand from the studios for pay and residuals.
Swift’s deal with the union was a savvy move to win their approval and support their position with the studios. In so doing, she sidestepped the complications that some other celebs have stepped into, such as Drew Barrymore and Bill Maher who were labeled “scabs” by some after restarting production of their talk shows.
See also: ‘Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour’ Hits Tracking With $100M-$125M Opening Weekend Projection (Deadline)
Studio Releases 9/29-10/5
| Title (Distributor) | Rating | Runtime | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Exorcist (50th Anniversary) (Universal Pictures) | R | 122 | Wide |
| PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie (Paramount Pictures) | PG | 92 | Wide |
| The Creator (20th Century Studios) | PG-13 | 96 | Wide |
| Saw X (Lionsgate) | R | 118 | Wide |
| The Kill Room (Shout! Studios) | R | 98 | Wide |
Studio Releases 10/6-10/12
| Title (Distributor) | Rating | Runtime | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Exorcist: Believer (Universal Pictures) | R | 121 | Wide |
| She Came to Me (Vertical Entertainment) | NR | 102 | Moderate |
| The Marsh King’s Daughter (Roadside Attractions) | R | 108 | Moderate |
| Hocus Pocus (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures) | PG | 96 | Limited |
| When Evil Lurks (IFC Films) | NR | 99 | Limited |