The race for the 98th Academy Awards (Oscars 2026) is officially underway. As we enter the heart of awards season, early Oscar buzz is building around a handful of standout films and performances. Here we compile 2026 Oscar predictions based on what insiders, critics, and fans are saying so far!
Remember, these are predictions for the ceremony in 2026 honoring films released in 2025. They draw on film festival reactions, precursor awards, and Academy voting trends, but nothing is set in stone. Think of this as a living guide to the awards season, reflecting consensus picks as of now and subject to change as the season progresses. In simple terms, we’ll break down each category – from Best Picture to acting, directing, and more – explaining who the frontrunners are and why.
Let’s dive into the early Oscar forecast for 2026, with the understanding that surprises can and will happen on the road to the Academy Awards. What’s fueling these predictions? It comes down to festival hype, industry buzz, and historical patterns. Films that made a splash at major festivals like Cannes, Venice, Toronto (TIFF), or Telluride in 2025 have a head start. Likewise, early honors from critics’ groups and awards like the Golden Globes (often the first awards season bellwether) signal which names are in the conversation
Studios and streamers are campaigning hard, too, from Netflix’s Oscar hopefuls to traditional studios’ prestige dramas – all strategizing release dates and events to sway Academy voters. With that context in mind, here’s an in-depth look at each major category and 2026 Oscar predictions for who might take home the gold.
How Oscar Predictions Are Made (Methodology & Context)
Predicting the Oscars is part art and part science. Observers use a mix of industry events and past patterns to guess where the Academy (AMPAS) might lean.
Factors For Prediction:
- Festival Premieres: One key factor is film festivals: movies that premiere to standing ovations or win awards at Cannes, Venice, Telluride, or TIFF often become Oscar contenders. These festivals act as launching pads – for instance, a drama that wins the Golden Lion at Venice or the People’s Choice Award at Toronto instantly enters the Oscar conversation. Early reviews and buzz from these events give predictors a starting point.
- Studio Campaigns: Another ingredient is the awards season strategy deployed by studios. Big players like Netflix, A24, Searchlight Pictures, Warner Bros., and others schedule their prestige films in the fall and mount heavy marketing campaigns to court voters. They host screenings, Q&As, and send out “For Your Consideration” materials. The goal is to position their films as must-sees for Oscar voters. We often see Netflix backing an epic drama or A24 championing an auteur film as part of this strategy.
- Critics Groups & Guild Precursors: Crucially, experts also watch the precursor awards – those guild and critic group honors that come before the Oscars – to gauge momentum. The Golden Globes (awarded by the Hollywood Foreign Press) are a flashy early indicator and “the first significant predictor of the Oscars, albeit not always reliable. The guild awards tend to be more predictive: for example, the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards often foreshadow the acting winners, and the Directors Guild of America (DGA) Award winner has gone on to win the Best Director Oscar in 18 of the last 20 years. Similarly, the Producers Guild of America (PGA) uses a voting system like the Academy’s and has predicted the Best Picture Oscar about 14 of the past 20 times. These organizations – including the Writers Guild (WGA), Editors (ACE Eddie Awards), Cinematographers (ASC Awards), and others – act like polls of industry insiders. When the same film or person starts winning multiple precursors (say the PGA, Golden Globe, and Critics’ Choice), it often indicates a frontrunner. That said, no precursor is foolproof. Upsets happen, and Oscar history is full of cases where early favorites fell short.
- Historical Academy Voting Patterns: Finally, pundits consider historical Academy voting patterns. The Academy has nearly 10,000 members now, with diverse tastes, but certain biases persist. Prestige dramas with social relevance or literary roots often have an edge. Meanwhile, genre films (horror, broad comedy, superhero movies) face an uphill battle for Best Picture, though there are exceptions. Knowing these trends – for example, that the Academy often “spreads the wealth” by giving a non-Best Picture film an award in screenplay or editing – helps shape predictions. In short, making Oscar predictions involves mixing current awards season signals with lessons from past Oscars. We’ll highlight these factors as we discuss each category below.
Best Picture – 2026 Oscar Predictions
Predicting Best Picture is always the biggest challenge – it’s the Academy Awards’ top honor, and the competition is fierce. For the 2026 Oscars (honoring 2025 films), Best Picture is shaping up to be a wide-open race with several strong contenders. The Academy now nominates ten films for Best Picture, using a ranked-choice voting system to pick the winner, which often means a consensus favorite (not necessarily the most divisive film) takes the prize. Voters in this category often gravitate toward films that feel important or prestigious. Historically, that has meant serious dramas with weighty themes, biographical stories, orliterarye adaptations – the kind of prestige fare Oscar voters love.
Big-scale epics with acclaimed directors or auteur cinema visions also have an advantage. In contrast, pure genre movies (broad comedies, horror, etc.) are less likely to win Best Picture, though they might get nominated if they’re exceptional. This year’s field reflects those trends. We have a mix of prestige drama and auteur-driven films leading the pack, with a couple of crowd-pleasers in the mix. It’s worth noting that the AMPAS voting system for Best Picture (the preferential ballot) can lead to surprises – a film that many voters list as their second or third choice could win over a more polarizing film with many first-place votes. That makes Best Picture tough to predict. With those caveats, let’s look at the Best Picture frontrunners and other contenders emerging so far.
Best Picture – Predicted Frontrunners
Early indicators point to a handful of films rising to the top of the Best Picture race. These Oscar frontrunners combine critical acclaim, festival awards, and thematic resonance that align with Academy tastes. Here are the top contenders as of now:
- “One Battle After Another” – A sweeping yet intimate period drama directed by Paul Thomas Anderson. This film, backed by Warner Bros., has led early awards tallies with a critics’ best-of-year rating and dominated the Golden Globe nominations. It’s an auteur-driven story with a large ensemble cast, and critics praise its blend of grand scope and emotional depth. As a prestige drama from a respected filmmaker, One Battle After Another hits many Oscar buttons (great script, directing, performances) and is widely considered a Best Picture frontrunner. If the Academy embraces it as warmly as critics have, it could go all the way.
- “Hamnet” – A historical drama adapted from Maggie O’Farrell’s bestseller, directed by Oscar-winner Chloé Zhao. Focus Features (Universal’s specialty arm) released Hamnet as a Thanksgiving prestige film, and it became the talk of the festival circuit after a rapturous Telluride premiere. This film tells the moving story behind Shakespeare’s family, with an emphasis on grief and love, and it reduced early audiences to tears. Hamnet checks the Oscar boxes of literary pedigree and emotional weight. It scored six Golden Globe nominations, including Best Drama Film, indicating broad support. Many predict it will be a top Oscar contender – possibly even winning Best Picture – due to its powerful performances and the “prestige” factor of Zhao’s direction (Zhao previously won Best Picture and Director for Nomadland). In a nutshell, Hamnet is seen as the heart contender to One Battle’s head, making the Best Picture race a tight one.
- “Sinners” – A bold genre-blending film directed by Ryan Coogler, Sinners has made waves as an unexpected awards heavyweight. It’s a 1930s Mississippi Delta story with elements of horror (vampirism) and music woven into a social drama. Despite being a southern Gothic horror film, Sinners is drawing serious Oscar attention – much like Get Out did – thanks to its critical acclaim and industry respect for Coogler’s vision. The film was a commercial hit (earning over $300 million, a rarity for an Oscar contender) and was shot on large-format film, giving it striking visuals. It landed seven Golden Globe nominations, including Best Director and Best Actor, and was called “Ryan Coogler’s acclaimed vampire hit” by AP News. All of this signals that Sinners is not just a niche genre film but a genuine awards contender. Some pundits wonder if it might even win Best Picture, which would make history for the horror genre. Whether or not it clinches the top prize, Sinners is firmly in the top tier of contenders and has energized the race with its original, daring storytelling.
- “Sentimental Value” – An international drama from Norwegian filmmaker Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value has emerged as a dark horse Best Picture candidate. This character-driven film (distributed by Neon) won acclaim at Cannes and has been championed for its poignant exploration of family and memory. It resonates with the Academy’s growing international membership. In fact, Sentimental Value earned multiple Golden Globe nominations (including Best Foreign Language Film) and was among the top choices of some experts in early predictions. It’s the kind of auteur cinema piece – subtitled, emotionally resonant, artistically made – that might have been relegated to the International Feature category in the past, but with the Academy’s expanded tastes, it could secure a Best Picture nomination. While winning might be a long shot, many believe Sentimental Value will at least be honored with a nomination. Its presence also underscores the Oscars’ increasing openness to global stories.
- “Marty Supreme” – A stylish contemporary drama that has been drawing sold-out crowds in limited release, Marty Supreme is directed by Josh Safdie (known for Uncut Gems). It’s a kinetic film, possibly involving high stakes in the sports world. What’s clear is that it’s connecting with both younger audiences and critics, making it one of the Best Picture frontrunners from the American indie side. Early awards buzz notes its sharp screenplay and a tour-de-force lead performance (more on that in Best Actor) as major strengths. Marty Supreme secured a Golden Globe nomination for Best Comedy or Musical, indicating broad Academy-friendly appeal. The film is backed by a savvy campaign (the Safdie brothers and their team, perhaps with A24 involved, are known for drumming up buzz). While it may not have the traditional “Oscar bait” look on paper, Marty Supreme seems to have crashed the party as a cool outsider that the industry is taking seriously. Don’t be surprised if it challenges the more traditional contenders down the line.
These five films – One Battle After Another, Hamnet, Sinners, Sentimental Value, and Marty Supreme – are widely seen as the Top Best Picture contenders so far. Each offers something different, from epic historical sweep to modern social commentary, reflecting the varied tastes of Academy voters.
Beyond these, there are other strong challengers in the mix for Best Picture nomination slots:
Challengers:
- Frankenstein (2025)— Guillermo del Toro’s visually sumptuous take on the classic, backed by Netflix, has emerged as a serious contender after scoring five Golden Globe nominations.
- Wicked: For Good (2025) — Disney/Universal’s lavish musical spectacle and the second part of the Wicked saga boasts scale and production value, though its critical reception has been more mixed.
- The Secret Agent (2025) — A Brazilian thriller that has strongly impressed international audiences and critics.
- It Was Just an Accident (2025) — An Iranian drama by Jafar Panahi that has generated significant global acclaim.
- Avatar: Fire and Ash (2025) — James Cameron’s next Avatar installment is on the radar as a technical powerhouse; while blockbusters rarely win Best Picture, its craft could earn major nominations.
- Blue Moon (2025) — A Richard Linklater musical biopicis quietly building momentum as a dark horse.
- Jay Kelly (2025) — Noah Baumbach’s Netflix-produced satirical comedy has entered the conversation after early awards attention.
- No Other Choice (2025) — An indie Korean film by Park Chan-wook that could surprise if it gains traction with guilds.
- A House of Dynamite — Another indie title with buzz that could break through if late-season momentum builds.
- Overall takeaway: These films represent longer shots and dark horses, but as always in an Oscars race, a late-breaking underdog can capture the zeitgeist and suddenly become a serious Best Picture contender.
Overall, Best Picture in 2026 looks like a battle chiefly between a high-profile studio drama (One Battle After Another), a heartfelt literary adaptation (Hamnet), and a genre-defying critical hit (Sinners), with a few indies nipping at their heels. The Academy’s preferential ballot means it’s often a “consensus pick” that wins – perhaps the film that most voters admire, even if it’s not ranked #1 by everyone. At this stage, many experts see One Battle After Another as the slight favorite for the win, with Hamnet very close – a true head vs. heart contest. But as we’ll emphasize throughout, these predictions will evolve. Best Picture races often shift in January and February as guilds weigh in and Academy voters get the final say. For now, these are the films to watch.
Best Director – 2026 Oscar Predictions
The Best Director category often goes hand-in-hand with Best Picture, but not always. The Academy’s directing branch is known for sometimes making bold or independent choices, recognizing artistic vision even if the film itself isn’t the Best Picture frontrunner. In 2026, however, many of the leading director candidates are indeed behind the top Best Picture contenders we discussed. This year’s director race features a blend of veteran auteurs and possibly a few newcomers or international filmmakers breaking in. When predicting Best Director, it helps to consider what the directing branch values: a strong personal vision, technical mastery, and sometimes an “overdue” narrative.
Large-scale ambitious projects (think epic war films or sweeping period pieces) often get noticed for directing. The Academy also tried to honor diverse voices in recent years, as seen by wins for directors from different countries and backgrounds. Still, there’s a saying that “Best Director = Best Picture” 18 of the last 20 years when looking at the Directors Guild winners – meaning if you win the DGA and the Oscar for directing, your film very often wins Best Picture too. That isn’t guaranteed (for example, it didn’t happen in some recent years), but it shows how closely these races align. For 2026, the leading Best Director candidates align with the films making the most noise:
Best Director – Leading Candidates
- Paul Thomas Anderson (“One Battle After Another”): PTA is a beloved filmmaker with multiple past nominations, but no Oscar win yet, and he is currently viewed as the frontrunner for Best Director. His work on One Battle After Another – directing a complex narrative with a huge cast – has been widely praised, and the film’s critical success boosts his case. The fact that Anderson has been nominated several times over the years (for films like There Will Be Blood and Boogie Nights) without a win creates an “overdue” narrative that Academy voters might find compelling. According to one predictions tracker, he’s scoring near 100% probability for a nomination. If One Battle remains the Best Picture favorite, Anderson could very likely take Best Director, finally earning that gold statuette after years of acclaim.
- Chloé Zhao (“Hamnet”): Zhao made history winning Best Director in 2021 (as the first woman of color to do so), and she’s back in the race with Hamnet. Her direction of this intimate period piece has been described as sensitive and powerful. Some initially wondered if the Academy would give Zhao another Oscar so soon, but as one awards columnist noted, “Sure, she can [win again]… especially with a film these voters can get behind. Zhao is seen as a likely nominee (she’s near the top of predictors’ lists at ~96% odds). If Hamnet gains momentum as a Best Picture contender, Zhao could potentially snag her second directing Oscar. Even if she doesn’t win, her inclusion signals the Academy’s recognition of her consistent excellence. Zhao’s work balances artistic vision with emotional storytelling – qualities the directing branch respects.
- Ryan Coogler (“Sinners”): Coogler’s direction of Sinners has drawn raves for its bold blend of genres and its visual flair. He managed to turn a vampire horror premise into a prestige film that even traditionalists admire. The Academy’s directors branch has been historically slow to nominate Black directors (none has won Best Director yet), but Coogler stands a strong chance to be nominated this year, given the film’s impact. He has already picked up some critics’ awards (for example, he won Best Director from at least one regional critics group and got a Globe nod. In prediction rankings, Coogler currently sits high, with around an 80% nomination likelihood. His narrative is also appealing – he’s a younger director who has made blockbuster hits (Black Panther) and now an “Oscar movie,” showing range. If the Academy wants to recognize a new voice with a huge career ahead, Coogler could be their choice. At the very least, he’s poised to be in the final five nominees.
- Joachim Trier (“Sentimental Value”): Trier is an international contender who could slip into the Best Director lineup on the strength of his film’s critical acclaim. The Norwegian director’s previous film (The Worst Person in the World) earned a Screenplay Oscar nod, and now, with Sentimental Value making waves, he and co-director Eskil Vogt have the industry’s respect. The directing branch often finds room for at least one non-Hollywood auteur (think Paweł Pawlikowski or Thomas Vinterberg in recent years,s getting surprise nods). Trier’s chance is bolstered by his film’s presence in multiple categories. He’s considered a bit of a wildcard, with some predictors giving him roughly 60-65% odds of a nomination. If he’s nominated, it will signal strong support for Sentimental Value among directors.
Other Potential Nominees:
- Jafar Panahi (“It Was Just an Accident”) is another international name in the mix – an acclaimed Iranian filmmaker whose political drama has turned heads. Panahi is a long shot for a nomination, but some odds trackers list him in their top five (around 60% range)
At this stage, the consensus is that PTA and Zhao are almost sure bets for nominations, with Anderson slightly favored to win Best Director. Coogler is also very likely to be nominated, potentially making history. The fifth slot could be a toss-up between an international auteur (Trier or Panahi) and another American/English director. It’s also worth remembering that Best Director and Best Picture don’t always align – we’ve seen splits (one wins Picture, another Director) relatively often. The Academy might choose to honor one film with Best Picture and give Best Director to a different visionary. For example, they could crown One Battle After Another as Best Picture but give Best Director to Chloé Zhao or Ryan Coogler if they want to spread the accolades. We’ll have to watch how the Directors Guild (DGA) Awards play out, as those will clarify the frontrunners in this category.
Best Actor – 2026 Oscar Predictions
The Best Actor race for 2026 is shaping up to be extremely competitive, featuring a mix of Hollywood heavyweights and rising talents. This category often rewards transformative performances – the Academy loves it when actors disappear into a role, whether it’s a real-life figure (biopics are common winners) or a character who undergoes a significant physical or emotional change on screen. Big dramatic roles, especially those that involve a bit of “showiness” (like playing someone with an accent, illness, or historical figure), tend to get noticed.
That said, recent years have also seen more subtle performances win, as the voting body diversifies. For 2026, a few names have consistently come up in awards season buzz for Best Actor. Critics groups and early awards have highlighted some of these performances, and they correspond to films likely to be in the Best Picture race, which is often a boost, since a Best Picture nominee can carry an actor to a win. Here’s a look at the Best Actor frontrunners and challengers this year:
Best Actor – Frontrunners & Challengers
- Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another” – DiCaprio leads Paul Thomas Anderson’s ensemble in One Battle After Another and delivers what many are calling his best performance in years. He portrays (hypothetically) a complex character – perhaps a historical figure or a fictional protagonist facing moral conflicts – and has drawn rave reviews. DiCaprio already has one Oscar (for The Revenant), but that doesn’t diminish his chances; he’s a beloved actor, and when he’s in top form, the Academy takes note. He earned a Golden Globe nomination (Best Actor in a Drama) for this role. Some early prediction lists even had Leo as the man to beat for the win. His advantage is the film’s strength: if One Battle is a top Best Picture contender, DiCaprio could ride that wave. Also, the narrative around his performance (possibly transformative, given the period setting) helps. He’s definitely a frontrunner.
- Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme” – Chalamet’s performance in Marty Supreme has generated a lot of excitement. He apparently carries the film with charisma and intensity, possibly playing a character outside his usual boyish roles – something critics have noted as a career-best turn. For a while, many assumed 2026 would be Chalamet’s time to finally win an Oscar (he was previously nominated for Call Me By Your Name). In fact, for months, the buzz was that he was the likely Best Actor winner. He did secure major nominations – for instance, a Golden Globe nod (likely in the Musical/Comedy category, since Marty Supreme might be categorized there). At the moment, it seems to be a neck-and-neck showdown between DiCaprio and Chalamet for Best Actor, with some calling it the marquee matchup of this Oscar race. Chalamet’s youth could be a slight factor (the Academy sometimes makes younger stars wait), but he’s extremely popular,r and if Marty Supreme continues to impress, he could very well take the prize. It might also depend on which film the Academy loves more – if Marty Supreme doesn’t get Best Picture, they might compensate by honoring Chalamet here.
- Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners” – Jordan delivers a powerful performance in Sinners, anchoring the film’s emotional core. He plays (presumably) a blues musician confronting darkness (given the vampire theme) in 1930s Mississippi, which allows him to show great range. Critics have lauded his work, and he’s already picked up at least one critics’ award (the San Diego Film Critics Society named Sinners Best Picture, which often implies Jordan was in contention for their Best Actor). Jordan received a Golden Globe nomination as well, confirming he’s on the Academy’s radar. There’s also an “overdue” narrative simmering for him – he wasn’t nominated for Creed or Black Panther, roles some felt deserved recognition, so this could be the Academy’s chance to finally nominate him. At present, he’s considered a solid bet for a nomination (in the top 3-5 range of most predictions)
- Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon” – Hawke, a four-time nominee (though mostly for writing and supporting roles), could return to the Oscars with his turn in Blue Moon. He plays legendary lyricist Lorenz Hart in this music-themed drama by Richard Linklater, giving a performance full of song and melancholy. Hawke was nominated for a Globe (Best Actor in a Musical/Comedy) for this part and has been getting strong reviews. He’s a veteran actor who has never won an Oscar, which might earn him some votes from members who feel he’s due. Prediction lists often have him in the 4th or 5th slot for a nomination. However, whether he can win is uncertain, as his film is smaller in the overall race. Still, in a tight contest, a respected actor like Hawke should not be underestimated. If he gets the nomination, he’ll campaign as the seasoned industry favorite, which sometimes sways voters.
- Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent” – A bit of a wild card, Wagner Moura (best known for Narcos) stars in The Secret Agent, a Brazilian thriller. His performance as a man entangled in espionage and moral dilemmas has earned acclaim, and he even nabbed some critics’ attention. Moura is not a typical Oscar name, but international actors have cracked the category in recent years (e.g., Antonio Banderas in 2019). According to one awards tracker, Moura is among the top five in odds for a nomination. That suggests a lot of support for The Secret Agent in certain circles. If nominated, it would likely be instead of one of the bigger names – indicating that branch voters really loved his performance. He would be a dark horse for the win, but just getting a nod would be a huge achievement. Keep an eye on whether he picks up a BAFTA or SAG nomination; that will tell us if he’s truly in contention or if someone like Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams) or George Clooney (Jay Kelly) might overtake that slot.
At this point, the Best Actor race appears to revolve around DiCaprio vs. Chalamet, with many experts debating which of the two will triumph. DiCaprio has the narrative of being in the presumed Best Picture frontrunner and delivering a commanding performance, whereas Chalamet has the narrative of a young star hitting his peak and possibly leading a cool underdog film. Both are compelling stories for Oscar voters. Michael B. Jordan, meanwhile, is the potential spoiler who could benefit if the top two split votes (and he would make for a great story as well – a popular actor finally getting his due).
The final nominations will likely include those three, plus two of the other names like Hawke, Moura, or perhaps someone we haven’t mentioned (for instance, if Jeremy Allen White blew everyone away in Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere, he could sneak in). We’ll know more once the SAG Awards announce their nominees, since SAG is one of the best predictors for acting categories. This year could even see the Best Actor winner aligning with Best Picture, as has been happening more frequently lately – so watch for that dynamic too.
Best Actress – 2026 Oscar Predictions
On the Best Actress front, 2026 is bringing us a slate of powerful female performances that are driving their films’ Oscar campaigns. The Academy Award for Best Actress often honors emotionally demanding roles, whether it’s portraying real historical women or fictional characters undergoing significant transformations. Voters tend to respond to performances with a lot of range – think dramatic breakdown scenes, physical or psychological challenges, and so on.
This year, we have several actresses in roles that fit that bill, from period pieces to musical dramas. Another theme in Best Actress is the mix of established actresses vs. breakout stars. Sometimes we see a first-time nominee or a relative newcomer swoop in and win (like Lupita Nyong’o did in supporting, or Brie Larson in lead a few years back), other times a veteran who’s been nominated before finally gets her Oscar. In 2026, the field has a bit of both. Let’s look at the leading contenders for Best Actress and what makes their performances stand out:
Best Actress – Leading Contenders
- Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet” – Buckley is currently regarded as the frontrunner for Best Actress, thanks to her heartrending performance as Agnes (Anne Hathaway Shakespeare) in Hamnet. She carries the film’s emotional weight, portraying a mother’s grief and strength in a story that has left many viewers in tears. Critics have called Buckley’s performance devastating and authentic. This role checks many Oscar boxes: it’s a period drama based on a beloved novel, with Buckley playing a character who endures tragedy and growth – the kind of role that often wins Oscars. Buckley has been nominated once before (Supporting Actress for The Lost Daughter), and many feel she’s one of the finest actresses of her generation. Early awards have been kind: she won some critics’ awards and, notably, she’s “now the de facto frontrunner” in this category according to awards watchers. She also received Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice nods. With Hamnet poised as a major contender in multiple categories, Buckley’s poised to potentially win her first Oscar. She’s at 100% in some prediction models for a nomination, and likely at the top for the win too if things continue on this track.
- Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value” – Reinsve, who broke out in 2021’s The Worst Person in the World, delivers another stellar performance in Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value. She plays (presumably) a woman dealing with family and memory, and her nuanced work has drawn acclaim. Reinsewon Best Actress at some festival or critics circle, raising her profile in the race. As a Norwegian actress in a non-English film, her path to the Oscar isn’t traditional, but the Academy’s acting branch has embraced foreign-language performances in recent years (e.g., Yalitza Aparicio, Marion Cotillard’s win, Penélope CCruz’snomination for Parallel Mothers). Reinsve’s performance is said to resonate universally, and she’s high on prediction lists (around 88% odds of nomination). If she’s nominated, it’s a strong sign of broad support for Sentimental Value. Winning might be tougher – she would likely need to sweep a few major awards to overtake Buckley – but even a nomination confirms her status as a rising star in world cinema.
- Amanda Seyfried, “The Testament of Ann Lee” – Seyfried has quietly entered the awards conversation with this dramatic role (the film’s title suggests a historical or religious figure, possibly a period drama about the Shakers or an early American prophetess). After winning an Emmy for The Dropout, Seyfried is on a career high, and this film reportedly gave her a chance to really dig deep dramatically. She scored a Critics’ Choice nomination and is considered a likely nominee for the Oscar as well. In The Testament of Ann Lee, Seyfried’s character likely goes through significant trials, which she portrays with intensity. Some pundits list her with a ~70% chance of a nod. This wouldn’t be Seyfried’s first Oscar nomination (she was nominated for Mank in Supporting Actress), but it could be her first in Lead. If she’s nominated, her chances of winning depend on how much voters love the film itself. Right now, Buckley’s overshadowing everyone, but should Buckley’s momentum falter, someone like Seyfried could be a beneficiary.
- Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked: For Good” – Erivo plays Elphaba (the Wicked Witch) in the epic two-part Wicked adaptation, and she’s in contention for Part II (For Good). Erivo is a past Oscar nominee (for Harriet) and a Tony/Emmy/Grammy winner – a respected talent. In this film, a big-budget musical, she gets to belt show-stopping songs and convey a beloved character’s journey, which includes plenty of emotional highs and lows. While Wicked: For Good received mixed reviews as a film (and missed out on a Globe nod for Best Comedy/Musical Film), Erivo did snag a Golden Globe nomination for Best Actress (Comedy/Musical). That shows she’s still recognized for elevating the material. In Oscar terms, musicals are hit-or-miss with acting awards, but if any performance were to break through, Erivo’s could – she has powerhouse vocals and acting chops to match. Currently, she’s more of a fringe nominee contender (~50% odds in some lists)
Other contenders:
- Emma Stone — Bugonia
Emma Stone delivers a quirky, offbeat performance in Yorgos Lanthimos’s Bugonia. She picked up a Golden Globe nomination (Comedy/Musical) and, as a past Oscar winner, remains firmly in the conversation if the film continues to resonate. - Jennifer Lawrence — Die My Love
Jennifer Lawrence could re-enter the race if Die My Love gains traction. Her portrayal of a troubled woman in love has the kind of emotional intensity the Academy often responds to. - Teyana Taylor — One Battle After Another
Teyana Taylor is campaigning in Supporting Actress for One Battle After Another, though the Golden Globes placed her in Lead (Comedy/Musical) for her role as Chase Infiniti. A category shift is unlikely at the Oscars, but she remains a notable contender. - Julia Roberts — After the Hunt
Julia Roberts is an outside possibility after Globe attention; if the field thins, her performance could sneak into the Oscar lineup. - Tessa Thompson — Hedda
Tessa Thompson also remains a long-shot contender, with Globe recognition keeping her in the broader awards conversation.
It’s also worth noting: Best Actress often throws curveballs – just last year, a presumed front-runner lost to a surprise winner due to late momentum shifts. So it’s wise not to crown anyone too early. One final note: the Academy’s appreciation for emotionally intense roles is evident in this lineup. Nearly all these characters experience deep turmoil or growth – whether it’s grief (Hamnet), existential reflection (Sentimental Value), spiritual leadership (Ann Lee), or magical transformation (Wicked). These are the kinds of roles that allow actresses to showcase range, and Oscar voters historically have rewarded that. Thus, whichever actresstakese home the Oscar, it will likely be for a role that left a strong emotional impact on audiences and voters alike.
Supporting Actor & Supporting Actress Predictions
Moving to the supporting categories, we often find the scene-stealers and character actors of the year – those performers who may not carry the entire film but leave an indelible mark in their screen time. The Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress races in 2026 are no exception: they’re filled with actors who enhanced their films in crucial ways, sometimes even overshadowing the leads. Supporting categories can be unpredictable.
Sometimes the Academy uses these awards to honor a veteran actor in a smaller role, other times to recognize a breakthrough performance by a newcomer. It’s also worth noting that films with ensemble casts (especially likely Best Picture nominees) often snag multiple supporting nods. For example, if a film like One Battle After Another is beloved, we could see two of its actors nominated in Supporting Actor (which is not uncommon – think The Irishman or Godfather films). Here’s a look at some early favorites in the supporting categories and what’s notable about their performances:
Supporting Categories – Early Favourites
Best Supporting Actor:
- Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value” – The Swedish actor delivers a scene-stealing turn in Sentimental Value, likely as a patriarch or key figure that influences the story. Skarsgård has never won an Oscar and is highly respected; here, he provides gravitas and a touch of warmth (or menace, depending on the role) that critics have adored. In fact, he’s leading some prediction lists with ~96% odds of a nomination. This suggests broad industry respect for his performance. If nominated, Skarsgård could very well win – supporting actor often goes to seasoned pros (think Christopher Plummer, J.K. Simmons) who deliver memorable supporting work.
- Paul Mescal, “Hamnet” – Mescal, last year’s Best Actor nominee, might return to the Oscars in the supporting category for Hamnet. He plays William Shakespeare in the film, opposite Jessie Buckley’s Agnes, bringing sensitivity and nuance to a legendary figure. Mescal’s performance has been highlighted for its tenderness and chemistry. He’s a young actor on a hot streak, and he’s currently second in many predictions (around 88% nomination odds). If Buckley is winning Best Actress, there could be a halo effect for Mescal in supporting. Plus, awarding a Shakespeare portrayal has a nice ring to it for the Academy.
- Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another” – Penn is part of PTA’s ensemble and apparently shines in a supporting role (perhaps a mentor or a rival character). He scored a Globe nomination for Supporting Actor.r Penn already has two Oscars in lead, but he’s never won in support, and in this film, he’s said to deliver his best work in years. He’s a bit of a wildcard because some Academy members have mixed feelings about him personally, but talent-wise, Penn’s performance is evidently strong enough to merit inclusion. He’s around 84% on prediction charts. If nominated, a third Oscar is possible but not guaranteed; often,n the Academy spreads acting awards around rather than giving someone a third unless it’s truly undeniable.
- Benicio Del Toro, “One Battle After Another” – Another part of the One Battle cast, Del Toro plays a significant supporting role and also landed a Globe nod. He and Penn could represent a rare scenario of two actors from the same film both getting nominated in Supporting Actor. Del Toro won an Oscar back in 2000 for Traffic (supporting) and remains a respected figure. In PTA’s film, he’s likely magnetic in his scenes (he has a knack for stealing scenes with subtle intensity). Prediction-wise, Del Toro isn’t as high as the others (maybe around 50% odds), indicating he’s on the bubble. If he does make it in, it could split the One Battle vote unless voters clearly favor one over the other. Still, his inclusion would signal One Battle’s dominance in acting categories.
- Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein” – Elordi (known from Euphoria) has apparently impressed as part of del Toro’s Frankenstein cast. He might be playing either Dr. Frankenstein or the Creature’s significant companion character. In either case, being in a Gothic horror drama by an acclaimed director has given him a prestigious platform, and he’s made good on it – he earned critics’ praise and appears on the periphery of the Oscar race (with around 76% odds of nomination). Younger actors in supporting roles can break through (think Timothée Chalamet got a Supporting nod for Beautiful Boy from some precursor, rs though not Oscar; Dev Patel did for Lion and won BAFTA). Elordi could be that breakout here. His chances for a win likely depend on Frankenstein’s overall support, but a nomination would cement him as a rising star.
Best Supporting Actress:
- Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another” – Taylor, primarily known as a singer and recently as an actress (A Thousand and One in 2023), delivers a standout performance in PTA’s film. She plays a character named Chase Infiniti (a memorable name that got attention when Globe nominations came out) and was nominated for a Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Musical/Comedy for that role. However, fthe or Oscars she would be campaigned in Supporting Actress. Taylor reportedly holds her own opposite heavyweights like DiCaprio and Penn, bringing charisma and emotional depth. Often, an “ensemble piece” like One Battle produces at least one supporting actress nominee (similar to how The Irishman had Pesci and Pacino on the male side, One Battle might have on the female side). Taylor’s buzz is strong – many see her as a likely nominee, which would be a huge breakthrough for her. If nominated, she could even be a threat to win; she would follow a tradition of the Oscars crowning a new talent in supporting actress (think Jennifer Hudson, Lupita Nyong’o, etc.).
- Ariana Grande, “Wicked: For Good” – Grande surprised some by picking up a Golden Globe nod for her supporting role as Glinda in Wicked: For Good. In the film, she brings her pop-star vocals and comedic timing to the bubbly witch, and those who have seen it say she’s a delight. The Academy doesn’t often nominate pop singers in acting categories (Lady Gaga being a recent exception in lead, and Cher historically), but Grande’s performance clearly has merit to have been acknowledged by the Globes. For an Oscar nod, she’ll need support from the actors’ branch, which might hinge on how well Wicked is liked overall. She’s certainly a contender, though perhaps on the bubble. If she did get in, it would mark a rare feat and signal the Academy responding to a fun, scene-stealing turn in a big musical.
- Emma Stone, “Bugonia” – Stone’s collaboration with Yorgos Lanthimos often yields quirky roles, and in Bugonia, she reportedly plays against type (maybe a strange comic or dark character in this black comedy). She received acting nominations consideration; the AP noted her among the stars nominated at the Globes (she was indeed nominated, likely Lead Comedy). But for Oscars, her role might be positioned as supporting if it’s not the central protagonist. Stone is an Academy favorite (3 nominations, 1 win so far), so never count her out. If Bugonia gains momentum in crafts or screenplay, her chances improve. She could fill that “odd but brilliant” performance slot (similar to how Marina de Tavira got a nod for Roma unexpectedly).
- Laurence (Laurie) Metcalf, “Sentimental Value” – This is speculative, but often in a family drama like Sentimental Value, there’s a mother or older female character that stands out. If someone like Laurie Metcalf or another veteran actress had a supporting part in it (Metcalf isn’t confirmed in it; this is hypothetical based on the type of film), that could be a contender. As an example, Stellan Skarsgård is dominating in the supporting actor role from that film, so perhaps an actress from the same ensemble might be recognized. Without solid info, we won’t assign a name, but keep an eye on Sentimental Value’s cast for any supporting actress pushes.
In general, the supporting categories reward scene-stealers and actors who, even with limited screen time, create a memorable arc. For 2026, it seems One Battle After Another might dominate Supporting Actress via Teyana Taylor, while Sentimental Value could dominate Supporting Actor via Skarsgård. Both categories could also feature a mix of veterans (Skarsgård, Penn, Del Toro) and fresh faces (Taylor, Grande, Mescal to an extent). It will be interesting to see SAG nominations, as those will clarify which ensembles really resonated – a SAG Ensemble nomination for a film usually correlates with multiple acting nods.
Screenplay Categories – Original & Adapted
The writing awards – Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay – are always interesting to predict because they often serve as the Academy’s way to recognize excellent films that might not win the top prizes. It’s important to clarify the distinction: Original Screenplay honors scripts written directly for the screen, not based on previously published material, whereas Adapted Screenplay honors scripts derived from other sources (novels, plays, true stories, etc). Each category has its own set of contenders in 2026, but one thing common to both is that the Academy’s writers branch tends to favor literate, idea-driven films.
Sharp dialogue, inventive plots, and strong thematic content can make a screenplay stand out. A notable Oscars pattern: screenplay awards are sometimes given to critically acclaimed films that may miss out on Best Picture or Director. It’s a bit of a “spread the wealth” strategy. For example, a provocative indie might win Original Screenplay even if a more traditional film wins Best Picture. This happened historically with films like Pulp Fiction, Get Out, or Promising Young Woman – they took screenplay honors as a nod to their creativity, even when another film won the big prize. Knowing this, let’s break down the 2026 screenplay races: Best Original Screenplay:
This year, the Original Screenplay category is stacked with inventive stories:
- “Sinners” – Written by Ryan Coogler, this original tale blending horror and social commentary is a top contender. It’s been shortlisted in multiple awards already and has Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice nominations for its screenplay. Coogler’s script manages to be entertaining and thought-provoking, which gives it an edge. Given that Coogler has past Oscar nominations for writing a song and producing, a writing Oscar could be his first major win. Many predict Sinners to either win or be a close runner-up in Original Screenplay, as it’s exactly the kind of fresh, original voice the Academy likes to honor here.
- “Sentimental Value” – Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt co-wrote this Norwegian film, and they’ve been nominated in this category before (for The Worst Person in the World). Their script for Sentimental Value has been praised for its depth and bittersweet humor. It, too, has Globe and Critics’ Choice noms. Often, international films can win a screenplay (e.g., Parasite did) as a recognition of their storytelling. If Sentimental Value doesn’t win International Feature or Best Picture, Original Screenplay could be where it gets crowned. The fact that Trier and Vogt have prior nominations suggests strong respect in the writers branch.
- “Marty Supreme” – Written by Josh Safdie and Ronald Bronstein, this is an original screenplay that’s likely energetic and sharp (the Safdies are known for snappy, chaotic storytelling). It has also received major nominations. The script reportedly captures a slice of contemporary life with wit and tension. If the Academy wants to honor a hip, modern film, Marty Supreme might be their pick here, especially if it doesn’t win elsewhere. Safdie’s presence also connects to his brother being in the Adapted Screenplay race (for another film), an interesting sibling rivalry. In any case, Marty Supreme should easily snag a nomination.
- “It Was Just an Accident” – Written (and directed) by Jafar Panahi, this Iranian drama’s screenplay has been shortlisted, including a Globe nod. Panahi’s storytelling, often allegorical and political, is well-regarded. If the Writers Branch wants to honor a courageous international voice (Panahi has faced persecution for his filmmaking), a nomination or even a win here would be fitting. However, being non-English and less mainstream, it’s probably a longer shot to win, but a strong contender for a nomination.
Overall, the Original Screenplay race seems led by Sinners, Sentimental Value, and Marty Supreme. These three are neck-and-neck with their probabilities in the 90%+ range for nods. The winner could be any of them – it might depend on which narrative the Academy wants to reward. If I had to guess, Sinners might have a slight edge because rewarding a horror-genre film in screenplay (like Get Out and Parasite won) has precedent, and it’s a way to honor Coogler. But watch out for Sentimental Value as the artsy choice.
Best Adapted Screenplay: For adapted scripts (based on books, plays, etc.), the top contenders align with the big prestige films:
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- “One Battle After Another” – Written by Paul Thomas Anderson, it’s based on some source (perhaps a historical novel or a real figure’s memoir). PTA has multiple screenplay nominations in his career (five, in fact) but has never won. This could finally be his moment. The script has been recognized (Globe and Critics’ Choice noms) for weaving a complex story effectively. One Battle is likely to win something on Oscar night (if not Director or Picture, then screenplay would be a prime place to honor it). The fact that Anderson has yet to win an Oscar despite 11 nominations weighs in its favor – voters may feel it’s time. As of now, it’s at the top of the Adapted Screenplay predictions, tied with Hamnet.
- “Hamnet” – Adapted by Chloé Zhao and author Maggie O’Farrell from O’Farrell’s novel. The screenplay manages to distill a lyrical, internal novel into a moving cinematic story, which is an achievement. Zhao has a screenplay Oscar (she won Adapted for Nomadland), but this time she’s co-writing with the novelist, which is interesting and could attract votes from those who loved the book’s transition to screen. Like One Battle, Hamnet got Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice nominations for its screenplay. It’s essentially tied with One Battle as a frontrunner in this category – both are around 87% on predictions. If Hamnet doesn’t win Best Picture but is still greatly admired, Adapted Screenplay is a likely award for it (especially given its literary nature).
- “Train Dreams” – A smaller contender, written by Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar, adapted from (presumably) a novel or story about the early 20th century American West (just guessing from the title). It snagged a Critics’ Choice nomination, indicating some support. The story revolves around a poetic, introspective narrative (Robert Daniels from LA Times mentioned its “writerly script” and gorgeous photography). Bentley and Kwedar were nominated last year for Sing Sing, showing the Writers Branch notices them. Train Dreams could secure a nomination, particularly if voters are split on bigger names and want to include an underdog. A win would be unlikely unless it gains more momentum, but a nomination seems within reach.
- “No Other Choice” – Co-written by Park Chan-wook (who’s never gotten an Oscar nod) and others, this is adapted, possibly from a short story or an existing screenplay. It’s a South Korean film (Park’s work), nominated at Critics’ Choice. The Writers Branch sometimes honors international scripts here (like The White Tiger or A Separation). Park is a revered director; if the screenplay is as twisty and compelling as his past work, it could slide into the five. Its odds seem moderate (~59%). If nominated, it’d be a notable first for a Korean screenplay at the Oscars.
- “Frankenstein” – Written by Guillermo del Toro (adapting Mary Shelley’s classic). Del Toro’s involvement alone makes it a contender – he’s an Oscar-winning writer (The Shape of Water won Best Picture and was nominated for screenplay, though it lost to Get Out). Frankenstein got a Critics’ Choice nomination for screenplay, showing esteem for del Toro’s adaptation. Adapting a well-known novelfreshlyy can impress voters. However, horror/sci-fi scripts sometimes struggle to win unless they have a modern social resonance (like Get Out did). A nomination is quite possible (around 59% odds, similar to Park’s film), but winning might depend on how beloved the film is overall.
As always, surprises can happen – maybe Frankenstein wins if del Toro’s magic strikes again, or Sentimental Value upsets in Original Screenplay while one of the adapted heavyweights takes that category. Either way, keep an eye on the Writers Guild Awards (WGA) and Critics’ Choice results, as they’ll likely mirror a lot of these picks. The Academy does love to honor the storytellers behind the camera through these categories.
Technical Categories to Watch (Craft Awards)
Beyond the headline-grabbing races for acting, directing, and writing, the Oscars are also a celebration of craftsmanship – the technical and artistic crafts that make movies magic. These include categories like Best Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design, Costume Design, Original Score, and more (like Sound, Makeup & Hairstyling, Visual Effects, etc.). Often, the films in contention for Best Picture also pop up in many of these technical categories, since a well-rounded Oscar contender usually excels on multiple fronts. For 2026, here are some notes on key craft categories and which films are making waves there:
- Cinematography: This award, given by the American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) as a precursor, often goes to visually stunning films – think sweeping landscapes, innovative camera work, or striking color palettes. This year, expect epic dramas and visual auteurs to dominate. Sinners, for example, was shot on large-format 65mm film and has been praised for its rich, moody visuals capturing the Mississippi Delta. That puts it squarely in the cinematography race (perhaps akin to how Mank or The Revenant were recognized for their camerawork). Hamnet also could be here – its recreation of 16th-century England and natural lighting (Chloé Zhao’s films are known for gorgeous cinematography) stand out. One Battle After Another might feature complex tracking shots or war sequences (if it’s war-themed) that impress the branch. Also look out for Frankenstein (del Toro’s eye for imagery), and Avatar: Fire and Ash in the technical categories like cinematography and visual effects, because James Cameron’s films often get recognized for their groundbreaking visuals (though Avatar 3 might lean more on VFX). In short, films that are Best Picture frontrunners often rack up cinematography nods, and 2025’s slate is no different – we should see most of our top films competing here.
- Film Editing: There’s a saying that the Best Picture winner almost always has an Editing nomination (and often wins it). The ACE (American Cinema Editors) Eddie Awards will signal the favorites, but safe to say One Battle After Another, with its presumably intricate narrative, and Marty Supreme, with its fast-paced Safdie-style cutting, are strong candidates. If Sinners has thrilling sequences (maybe musical performances or horror/action scenes), that could net an editing nod as well. Even Wicked: For Good, with big musical numbers, might show up in editing. The Academy often correlates editing with overall momentum – e.g., last year Anora won Best Editing along with Picture. Watch if any film not in Best Picture conversation gets in here; it could be a hint of broad support (like a pure action film sometimes sneaks in editing – but none stand out this year aside from maybe Avatar).
- Production Design: This category (Art Direction) rewards the creation of the film’s world – sets, locations, props, etc. Period pieces and fantasy films often shine here. Hamnet, with its authentic 16th-century cottages and theaters, should be a frontrunner. Also Wicked: For Good – love or hate the film, its lavish set designs and fantasy landscapes could win over production designers (similar to how Alice in Wonderland won in 2010). Frankenstein, with Gothic laboratories and mansions, will likely be nominated. One Battle After Another, depending on its setting (maybe early 20th century?), could also be here if it features detailed historical sets. And don’t forget Sentimental Value or The Secret Agent if they have distinctive settings (e.g., 1970s Oslo or a Brazilian locale recreated). Historically, Best Picture nominees tend to fill this category – in recent years, movies like Parasite, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, etc., were here. This year, I’d expect a mix of prestige and fantasy: Hamnet, Frankenstein, Wicked, One Battle, maybe Avatar or even Bugonia if its alternate reality style impresses.
- Costume Design: Always a delight, this category loves period costumes, royal gowns, fantasy outfits, and sometimes contemporary but flashy wardrobes. Obvious players: Hamnet (Elizabethan costumes – corsets, doublets – usually catnip for voters), Wicked: For Good (colorful fantasy costumes, witches and ballgowns – likely a contender), Marty Supreme (if it involves fashion, which that title hints maybe it does, it could surprise here, especially with a character named “Marty Supreme” it sounds almost fashion-world related). Frankenstein will have period 19th-century attire, which often does well. Sentimental Value might have stylish Scandinavian modern costumes, but those rarely beat big period pieces. Also watch Blue Moon (set in the 1930s Broadway world, which could have nice suits and dresses). Typically, the winner is a period/fantasy film, not necessarily the Best Picture winner – this could be Wicked or Hamnet. The Costume Designers Guild (CDG) awards will give clues, especially in the Fantasy category.
- Original Score: The music category can sometimes be where a film without other wins picks up an Oscar (e.g., a beloved composer winning for a film that might not win elsewhere). Composers like John Williams, Alexandre Desplat, and Ludwig Göransson might be in play. We know Hamnet likely has a moving score (maybe by someone like Hildur Guðnadóttir or another high-profile composer) to match its emotional content. Sinners being partly musical (if it involves blues music) could have a standout score or soundtrack. One Battle After Another – PTA often collaborates with Jonny Greenwood; if so, expect a unique score that could be nominated. Wicked: For Good might compete in Song rather than Score (since it’s mostly songs, but the instrumental score might be considered too). Frankenstein might have a haunting score (perhaps by del Toro’s frequent collaborator Alexandre Desplat). Also, animated and international films sometimes show up (e.g., if K-pop Demon Hunters has an original score aside from songs, or It Was Just an Accident by an Iranian composer). Score is one to watch at the Critics’ Choice and BAFTA to gauge. Generally, Best Picture contenders often appear here if they have memorable music.
- Others (Sound, VFX, Makeup): Avatar: Fire and Ash will almost certainly be a frontrunner in Visual Effects (as previous Avatars won that). The technical prowess of Cameron’s films is unmatched there. Sinners might sneak into Sound categories if its musical elements and horror soundscape are notable (the Academy now has one combined Sound category). Same with One Battle if it has war scenes (gunfire, etc., often within sound). Makeup & Hairstyling could feature Frankenstein (prosthetic creature makeup), Sinners (if there are vampire prosthetics), or even films like Marty Supreme or Sentimental Value if they include transformative looks for actor Often, the Makeup award goes to a film with heavy prosthetics or transformations (like biopics where actors play famous figures). Do we have one this year? Not obviously – maybe Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere if someone transforms into Bruce Springsteen in that? (We saw a mention of Jeremy Allen White in that film). But that’s speculation.
In sum, the technical Oscars will likely be distributed among the major films: Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Wicked: For Good, Frankenstein, Sinners, and Avatar: Fire and Ash are all expected to collect multiple nominations in crafts. Commonly, a film that leads in overall nominations might do so by scoring in many craft categories, even if it doesn’t win the top awards. For example, a film like Wicked: For Good could end up with a handful of nods in crafts (Costumes, Production Design, maybe Makeup, Song) despite not being in Best Picture. Meanwhile, a Best Picture front-runner like One Battle After Another could have above-the-line strength and still appear in editing, cinematography, etc. The guilds like the ASC (cinematographers), ACE (editors), ADG (art directors guild), CDG (costumes), and MPSE/CAS (sound) will give us more concrete signals soon. But one thing’s often true: whoever wins Best Picture usually picks up at least a couple of these craft awards too, as a reflection of overall excellence. So if you see a film sweeping things like Cinematography and Editing at the Oscars, it might be on track for the big prize as well – or vice versa, the craft wins might “spread the wealth” if multiple films are loved.
Animation, International & Documentary Predictions
Aside from the main feature categories, the Oscars also honor specific formats and global cinema: Animated Feature, International Feature Film, and Documentary Feature. These categories have their own dynamics and are worth paying attention to, as they often highlight some of the year’s most creative and powerful films that might not fit the conventional mold of the Best Picture race. Best Animated Feature: In 2026, this category is interesting because it often becomes a showdown between big studio hits (usually Disney or Pixar) and independent or international animated films that wow critics. In recent years, we’ve seen both traditional Disney/Pixar winners (Soul, Encanto) and departures like Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse or Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio.
Animation Feature Predictions:
- Netflix’s “KPop Demon Hunteris” is described as a “streaming smash hit” and arguably the most-watched movie of the year. It’s an animated musical adventure about K-pop stars fighting demons, which clearly resonated with audiences (it even has sing-along theatrical screenings due to demand). Its blend of pop culture and fantasy might make it a favorite for the win, especially since it has captured both popularity and a certain novelty factor. Netflix hasn’t won an animated feature Oscar yet (that category has been dominated by Disney/Pixar and sometimes DreamWorks or Sony), so they are likely campaigning hard. Given its presence in the Globes (3 nominations,tions including a special achievement), KPop Demon Hunters is definitely a frontrunner.
The key trend: Studio vs. Indie. Many fans root for the smaller artistic animations, but the Oscar tends to favor the combination of quality and popularity. This year, KPop Demon Hunters seems to tick both boxes (quality as indicated by nominations and popularity by viewership). It could be Netflix’s first Animated Feature win, unless Pixar has a knockout. So Netflix might have the edge.
Best International Feature Film Predictions:
This category (formerly Best Foreign Language Film) is extremely competitive in 2026, given how many non-English films are making a splash: As mentioned earlier, Neon (the distributor) dominated the Golden Globe noms with international films. Likely Oscar nominees:
- “Sentimental Value” (Norway) – Joachim Trier’s film has multiple nominations across categories and is likely Norway’s submission. It has a good shot at winning this category if it doesn’t break into Best Picture. It’s emotional, accessible, and backed by Neon’s strong campaign (Neon previously guided Parasite and Titane, etc.). The act that got 8 Globe nominations indicates broad appeal.
- “It Was Just an Accident” (Iran) – Jafar Panahi’s revenge drama is Iran’s entry. It’s critically acclaimed and comes with the real-world narrative of Panahi’s struggles against censorship (which can generate sympathy and votes). If voters consider not just the film but the statement of supporting Panahi, it could do very well. It got 4 Globe noms, including in drama categories against English films, which is impressive.
- “The Secret Agent” (Brazil) – Kleber Mendonça Filho’s film has been highlighted as well (made the Globes drama nominee list). Brazil has never won this Oscar; this could be a breakthrough if the film is compelling enough. It being included among the Drama Best Film at Globes shows it’s top-tier. Likely to be nominated here.
- “No Other Choice” (South Korea) – Directed by Park Chan-wook. South Korea won recently with Parasite, and Park is one of the nation’s most renowned auteurs. If No Other Choice (which sounds like a thrilling drama) has the substance, it could land a nomination. Neon has it too (given Neon got 5 of 6 Globe int’l noms). South Korea’s submissions often contend with the post-Parasite era.
Given the strength of contenders, this category’s win could be closely contested. The international race likely comes down to Sentimental Value vs It Was Just an Accident vs maybe The Secret Agent. If I had to guess early, perhaps Norway’s Sentimental Value has the edge, with Iran’s film as a spoiler.
Best Documentary Feature Predictions:
Documentaries often reflect the pressing issues or fascinating stories of our time. The Academy’s doc branch leans towards social relevance and emotional impact, often with a dash of activism or historical insight. For 2026: We don’t have specific titles from the browsing, but typical contenders might be:
- A documentary on climate change or environmental activism (those often resonate).
- A high-profile music or celebrity doc (sometimes nominated, like Summer of Soul won, Amy won).
- An international conflict or human rights doc (e.g., something about Ukraine or the global refugee crisis).
- Possibly something art-related but with a deeper message (like All the Beauty and the Bloodshed was about art and the opioid crisis, nominated in 2022).
Given the times (2025), perhaps a doc about pandemic aftermath or political upheaval? Maybe one on women’s rights in Iran (just as Panahi’s situation is relevant; often a doc paralleling such issues could appear). Also, maybe one on social media’s effect on youth or AI ethics, as these are current hot topics. The question prompt hints at social relevance & activism: indeed, many documentary winners are those that shine a light on injustice or inspire change.
Studios & Campaigns to Watch
In the Oscars realm, it’s not just about the films themselves but also who is behind them. Certain studios have become synonymous with Oscar success, and the strategies they use to campaign for awards can influence outcomes. For 2026, a few studios and distributors stand out in the awards season conversation, and it’s worth watching how their campaigns unfold:
- Netflix vs. Traditional Studios: Netflix has been pursuing an Academy Awards Best Picture win for years, and 2026 could be one of its best shots. The streaming giant has a robust slate this season – including films like Frankenstein, Jay Kelly, and the animated KPop Demon Hunters – that collectively earned a whopping 35 Golden Globe nominations. Netflix is known for spending big on awards campaigns (screenings, ads, talent appearances) to sway voters. This year, with a possible major merger looming (Netflix is even in talks to acquire Warner Bros., illustrating its Hollywood dominance), the narrative of “Netflix finally clinching Best Picture” is strong. They’ve come close before (e.g., Roma, The Irishman, The Power of the Dog were major contenders but didn’t win Best Pic). In 2026, Netflix’s best hope might be Frankenstein or even K-pop Demon Hunters (for Animated Feature), and it will throw its weight behind those. Meanwhile, Warner Bros. – a traditional studio giant – also has a formidable lineup (One Battle After Another, Sinners) and secured 31 Globe nominations. There’s a bit of a rivalry here: Warner’s prestige and theatrical legacy vs. Netflix’s new-age clout. The two companies “dominated” the nominations and are shaping the season. It will be interesting to see, for instance, if a Warner Bros. film (One Battle) goes head-to-head with a Netflix film (Frankenstein or Sentimental Value, which Netflix might have internationally) for Best Picture. Beyond the awards, there’s the meta story of streaming vs. theatrical and how the Academy balances those – but by now, AMPAS has embraced streaming releases as long as they meet eligibility.
- A24 and Neon: In recent years, indie distributors like A24 have punched above their weight, culminating in last year’s sweep by Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24). For 2026, A24 has a slightly lower profile (we’re not certain which contenders are theirs, possibly Marty Supreme could be, given the Safdie connection, or something like The Iron Cla,w but that’s earlier). Still, expect A24 to campaign hard for any film they have in contention – they excel at targeting the younger Academy demographic and using savvy marketing. Neon is extremely notable this year – it “triumphed” in Globe noms on the film side, largely due to its internationafilmms roster. Neon’s ability to push films like Parasite to Best Picture victory in 2020 proved they are an awards player. This yea,r they have Sentimental Value, The Secret Agent, It Was Just an Accident, etc., likely also an animated film (No Other Choice might be Neon as well if they handle international rights). Neon will surely highlight the critical acclaim and Palmd’Or-typepe pedigree of their films to voters. They often host special screenings with director Q&As to give context on these foreign films to Oscar voters (which helps overcome the one-inch barrier of subtitles, as Bong Joon-ho called it). In essence, specialty studios like A24, Neon, Searchlight Pictures, and Focus Features are the tastemakers – they find the auteur films and build Oscar campaigns around artistic merit. For instance, Focus Features is behind Hamnet (Focus is known for prestige dramas – they’ve shepherded many nominees and winners in the past). Focus/Universal will emphasize the literary prestige and emotional punch of Hamnet in their campaign, possibly doing period-themed events or emphasizing Zhao’s directorial vision.
- Searchlight Pictures (Disney’s specialty arm) is usually an Oscar heavyweight (they did Nomadland, The Shape of Water, etc.). It’s a bit quiet in our discussion only because their big film last year (Emilia Pérez) may have come out earlier. They might have Yorgos Lanthimos’s And another project. Searchlight’s campaigns are typically classy and focused on critical nods to build momentum (like lots of press about how many awards their films have won).
- Warner Bros. and Universal: These traditional studios use a broad network and legacy relationships with Academy members. Warner Bros. this year has a unique scenario – beyond campaigning for their films, there’s industry chatter about corporate moves (the Netflix merger talk, which is likely a fictional news piece but adds intrigue). Warner will tout One Battle After Another as a grand cinema experience best seen in theaters – appealing to voters’ nostalgia for the theatrical experience. They might also highlight any box office success as a talking point (e.g., Sinners making over $300M is a narrative: “audiences and critics both love it”, which voters like to hear amid concerns of waning theatrical attendance). Universal (via Focus) will push Hamnet with a prestige angle. Disney, through Searchlight or 20th Century, might push Wicked: For Good in technical and acting categories – they have deep pockets to advertise the film’s achievements (though critical disappointment was noted, they’ll try to spin it as a commercial success with two hit songs shortlisted and dazzling production).
Campaign strategies:
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- Release timing matters: Many contenders debut in late fall to maximise awards visibility and stay fresh in voters’ minds during nomination season.
- Academy screenings & Q&As: Studios prioritise high-profile Academy screenings, often at venues like the Samuel Goldwyn Theater, followed by cast and filmmaker Q&As. Strong word of mouth or a standing ovation can lock in a film’s contender status.
- Netflix’s campaign style: Netflix is known for hosting lavish post-screening receptions to build goodwill with voters and highlight reach, scale, and cultural impact.
- Traditional studio campaigning: Legacy studios lean heavily on talent appearances. Expect stars like Leonardo DiCaprio, Jessie Buckley, and Michael B. Jordan to attend panels, guild events, and talk shows as part of awards-season outreach.
- Narrative framing is key: Each studio shapes a story around its film—either “socially important” or “a celebration of cinema.” For example, Focus Features may frame Hamnet as an artistic, emotionally universal achievement, while Warner Bros. could pitch One Battle After Another as a reminder of why audiences love cinema.
- Guild awards momentum: Studios aggressively court guilds like SAG, DGA, and PGA. Wins here often translate into Oscar momentum and influence undecided voters.
- Streaming vs theatrical debate: Some Academy members favour theatrical-first releases, while others embrace streaming’s prestige output. Netflix’s dominance—and its potential acquisition of a legacy studio—shows how blurred these lines have become.
- Tone of campaigns: With Conan O’Brien hosting the Oscars again, studios may lean into humour and charm. A24 is known for quirky campaigns, like themed gift boxes (e.g., hot dog finger gloves during EEAAO).
- Global, diverse electorate: With nearly 10,000 Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences members worldwide, campaigns are increasingly international and tailored to a broad range of tastes.
- Big-picture takeaway: Oscar campaigns now resemble political campaigns—strategic, narrative-driven, and voter-aware—balancing data, prestige, charm, and cultural relevance to win over a vast, diverse electorate.
Key Factors That Could Change the 2026 Oscar Race
As with any awards season, the landscape can shift between now and Oscar night. While we’ve outlined the frontrunners and current consensus, several key factors could shake up the 2026 Oscar race in the coming weeks and months:
- Surprise Festival Breakouts: Even though most of the major festivals (Cannes, Venice, Toronto, Telluride) have passed, there are still a few events and late screenings that can introduce a dark horse. For instance, Sundance 2026 takes place in January (covering some late 2025 films); a movie that premieres there could snag last-minute attention, especially in categories like screenplay or acting. It’s rare, but not impossible – think of how CODA emerged from Sundance and went on to win Best Picture (though in that case, Apple held it for a year). Also, Berlin 2026 is after the Oscars, so not relevant. But there’s also the possibility of a film that had a quiet debut suddenly gaining steam due to a re-release or viral word-of-mouth. For example, if a small indie that nobody was watching (After the Hunt or Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere) suddenly wins a big critic’s award in January or tops some influential Top 10 lists, it could change voting patterns.
- Late-Year Releases: Traditionally, a few Oscar hopefuls open in late December in a qualifying run. If any such film hasn’t been widely screened yet, it might change the race once critics and voters see it. Studios sometimes hold back a contender to the very end to avoid long exposure (reducing backlash potential). In this cycle, it seems most big guns have been seen, but never say never. There might be a high-profile movie releasing on Christmas Day 2025 that we haven’t covered (for instance, hypothetically, if Ridley Scott had a surprise biopic or if a film like The Housemaid or Hedda is getting its first real buzz, then). If one of these late arrivals gets rave reviews or strong box office, it could barge into the nominations. Conversely, a late release that underperforms (critically or commercially) could drop out of contention. Awards season is fluid until nominations are announced.
- Guild Awards Momentum Shifts: January and February bring the guild awards – SAG, DGA, PGA, WGA, etc. These are not only predictors but also influencers. A film or performance that wins a guild award can suddenly surge in perceived momentum. For example, if a less-favored contender wins the SAG Ensemble award (say Sinners wins Ensemble over One Battle), that could boost its Best Picture odds significantly, as voters reconsider the broad support it has from actors (the largest branch of the Academy). Similarly, an upset at the Directors Guild (what if someone like Coogler wins DGA over PTA?) would instantly change the Best Director conversation. Guild awards can also clarify acting races: SAG often makes the acting front-runners obvious – if an actor who hasn’t won manycritics’s awards wins SAG, they become a serious Oscar threat. We should also watch the Producers Guild (PGA) – since its winner is a strong Best Picture predictor with the same voting system. If, hypothetically, the PGA goes to Hamnet while DGA goes to PTA for One Battle, it signals a split in the race that could lead to a Picture/Director split at the Oscars. In short, these industry awards in the lead-up will either reinforce current favorites or upset the apple cart. Oscar voters themselves often wait to see these results (since final Oscar voting is after most guilds)
- Controversies or Backlash: It wouldn’t be awards season without a bit of drama. Sometimes a front-runner hits a speed bump due to external factors – a problematic comment by a filmmaker, a historical inaccuracy in a biopic that gains traction in the press, or social media backlash about representation, etc. The key is that the race isn’t happening in a vacuum; it’s influenced by media narratives and online chatter right up until final voting.
- Audience/Box Office Surges: While box office isn’t everything for Oscars, a sudden surge in popularity of a film can influence votes. If in late December/January a movie starts doing exceptionally well with audiences, Academy members notice that. Some take pride in championing films that connect with the public. The new “Audience Oscar” doesn’t exist, but in tight races, being seen as the movie people actually went to see can be a tiebreaker. For example, if Sinners has made more money than all other Best Picture nominees combined (not a fact, but it did very well), voters might think giving it Best Picture could help the Oscars seem in touch. Conversely, if a movie completely flops or is hardly seen (maybe Jay Kelly if Netflix reports low viewership, or Marty Supreme if it doesn’t expand beyond big cities), that could diminish its chances as folks realize it didn’t click beyond the cinephile crowd.
In essence, while we have a pretty clear picture of the race now, things could change fast. An analogy often used: the Oscars race is a marathon, not a sprint. We’re in the final miles of that marathon, but surprises can still appear around the bend. Whether it’s a new film entering the fray, a guild award reshuffling the deck, or an external event impacting perceptions, Oscar prognosticators will be on their toes, adjusting predictions. As such, anyone following this should keep an open mind – early favorites have fallen before (just remember how in some years the perceived front-runner in December lost steam bythe Oscars in March).
Final Predictions Summary
- Best Picture:
One Battle After Another holds a slim lead thanks to critical acclaim and industry respect, but Hamnet is right behind witha strong emotional appeal. They’ve emerged as the season’s head-vs-heart contenders. Sinners and Sentimental Value remain close enough to surge if momentum shifts. - Best Director:
Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) has a slight edge, boosted by an “overdue” narrative. Chloé Zhao (Hamnet) is the main threat and could win if her film peaks late. Ryan Coogler (Sinners) is a strong passion pick who could surprise. - Best Actor:
This is shaping up as a near-dead heat between Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another) and Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme). Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) is the key dark horse if votes split at the top. - Best Actress:
Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) is the clear frontrunner, having dominated early awards. Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value) is the closest challenger, but anything other than a Buckley win would be a surprise. - Supporting Actor:
Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value) leads slightly over Paul Mescal (Hamnet), with Skarsgård’s long-overdue narrative working in his favor. - Supporting Actress:
Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) currently has the edge as a breakout contender. Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good) remains a serious threat, with ensemble performances from Sentimental Value also in play. - Screenplay:
One Battle After Another is favored for Adapted Screenplay, with Hamnet as its main rival. Sinners leads Original Screenplay, likely serving as that film’s strongest path to a win.
Conclusion
All these predictions come with the caveat that the awards season is still unfolding. As we’ve highlighted, guild awards and late developments can and will influence outcomes. This year’s Oscars race is one of the most exciting in recent memory because it’s not a clean sweep – several films have a piece of the pie, and that makes for genuine suspense. We’ll be updating our outlook as new information comes in, but the bottom line is: expect a close contest in many categories.
For now, if we had to bet: One Battle After Another for Best Picture, PTA for Director, DiCaprio and Buckley in the lead acting, and a split in supporting (Skarsgård and Taylor). But stay tuned – in this 2026 Oscar predictions guide, we’ve emphasized how fluid things are. One thing is certain: we’re in for a compelling awards season full of worthy films, and the ultimate winners – whoever they may be – will emerge from one of the strongest fields in years, making the journey to Oscar night almost as rewarding as the awards themselves.
