10/2-10/4: VERITY Flies, DIGGER is Buried and 2026 Box Office Momentum Continues

Oct 04, 2026

Amazon MGM’s new thriller VERITY led the way at the box office with $32.6M. Until recently, this weekend was expected to be a much closer contest between VERITY and Warner Bros.’ dark comedy DIGGER starring Tom Cruise, both of which were scheduled to open on Friday, October 2nd. In weeks leading up to opening, the building interest in VERITY had most insiders raising their estimates for the film, while DIGGER seemed headed in the opposite direction. In the end, DIGGER earned only $8.0M in its first three days.

All films in theatres produced $99.0M, which is less than the last two weekends but still much better than the $81.1M earned last year on this same 40th weekend of the year, led by $34.1M from TAYLOR SWIFT: THE OFFICIAL RELEASE PARTY OF A SHOWGIRL. This is the third consecutive weekend of 2026’s numbers coming in higher than one year ago, with 2026 also scoring wins in eight of the last ten weekends. The winning streak should continue for the next seven weeks until the weekend before Thanksgiving, when it is possible that 2025 will have a slight advantage over 2026.

In our just-published 2026 Fourth Quarter Preview, we are forecasting 2026 to wind up with a total box office of $10.3B, with a hearty assist from this year’s fall film slate. This weekend’s relative success compared to 2025 provides further justification for our optimistic year-end estimate. Here is a summary of the performance over the past four weeks.

THE LAST FOUR WEEKS – 2026 vs. 2025

Amidst the sunny results and forecast, the past four weeks have been roughly equal to last year. They include both of the two losing weeks our of the past ten, with 2026 beating out 2025 in the other eight.

#1 - VERITY

Amazon MGM’s R-rated psychological thriller VERITY opened with $32.6M, finishing in first place among all the movies playing in theatres this weekend. Its worldwide gross is $62.6M. Nick Antosca wrote the screenplay from a bestselling 2018 novel by Colleen Hoover. Michael Showalter directs, with his previous credits including THE BIG SICK (2017), THE LOVEBIRDS (2020), THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE (2021), SPOILER ALERT (2022) and THE IDEA OF YOU (2024). The latter stars Anne Hathaway, making VERITY a reunion that moves their collaboration from romance into darker territory.

Hoover has become a solid book-to-movie presence in Hollywood, as this is her fourth novel to be turned into a theatrical feature film. Hoover has established a reputation for selling her book rights to the highest bidder, as each of her four books that have been made into films have been sold to different studios.

COLLEEN HOOVER’S BOOK-TO-MOVIE HISTORY

In VERITY, the struggling novelist Lowen Ashleigh is hired by Jeremy Crawford to finish a bestselling series of novels after his wife, the author Verity Crawford, has been incapacitated by injuries she sustained in a car accident. Lowen moves into the secluded Crawford estate to examine Verity’s notes and immerse herself in her work. While searching through the author’s papers, she discovers an unfinished autobiographical manuscript whose disturbing confessions suggest that the family’s tragedies may conceal something far more sinister. What begins as a career opportunity becomes an unsettling investigation into the private life of the woman she has been hired to replace.

Verity’s manuscript portrays her consuming attachment to Jeremy and contains horrifying accounts involving their children, raising questions about what really happened within the household. Lowen initially keeps her discovery from Jeremy, fearing what it would do to an already grieving father. But as her sympathy for him develops into attraction, she becomes increasingly entangled in the family’s secrets—and has a personal stake in believing the worst about his wife. With Verity still living in the house, Lowen must decide whether the pages are genuine confessions or a calculated work of fiction. The suspense rests on how much she can trust the manuscript, the people around her, and her own judgment as desire begins to influence what she believes.

Dakota Johnson plays Lowen Ashleigh. She is best known for her roles in FIFTY SHADES OF GREY (2015), SUSPIRIA (2018) and THE PEANUT BUTTER FALCON (2019). The incapacitated Verity Crawford is played by Anne Hathaway, with her signature films including THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA (2006), LES MISÉRABLES (2012) and INTERSTELLAR (2014). Her husband Jeremy Crawford is played by Josh Hartnett, who first rose to fame with his roles in PEARL HARBOR (2001) and BLACK HAWK DOWN (2001) and more recently starred in OPPENHEIMER (2023) and TRAP (2024).

Until she read the script, Hathaway expected the movie to be another romantic comedy about a writer, in the same vein as their previous collaboration. With a Producer credit for her work on the movie, Hathaway pushed for Hartnett’s casting as the husband Jeremy. She had previously missed an opportunity to work with him. She and Johnson proposed a fantasy kiss between their characters. The moment was an addition to the adaptation rather than a scene taken directly from Hoover’s novel. Hoover initially worried about that addition. According to Showalter, it ultimately became her favorite part of the film.

Sometimes a film's setting is as important as its leading stars. In VERITY, the Crawford house is an actual architectural landmark located in Armonk, New York, 30 miles north of New York City. Danish designer Jens Quistgaard created it in the early 1960s for Dansk founders Martha and Ted Nierenberg. Now known as Beckoning Path, it is private property used as a wellness retreat. Its jagged roof strengthened the threatening atmosphere. Production designer Amy Williams saw shapes resembling fangs and inverted V’s that suited Verity’s world.

Critics have not treated the film kindly, with a Rotten Tomatoes score of only 34%. Hoover’s history with critics is now zero for four, as none of the movies made from her books have received a favorable grade. The public has been much more intrigued, and this time is no exception, with the movie receiving a 70% audience score. Here is a sample of what the critics had to say. From Variety, “A flat-footed dud, at once overwrought and underplotted.” The Hollywood Reporter says, “The movie is neither sexy nor smart, despite the objective hotness and intelligence of its performers.” The Guardian felt, “We are finally asked to accept a lamely unresolved situation as something fascinatingly ambiguous. This needed a new draft.” TheWrap concluded, “The premise is very silly, and the execution often meets that energy even if it isn’t meant to.”

The production budget for the film was a modest $40M, surprisingly economical given its well-known cast. This is an example of Amazon MGM using fiscal restraint that sometimes has been absent on the direct-to-streaming side of their business. For example, THE TOMORROW WAR was made in 2021 for $200M and HEADS OF STATE came out in 2025 after spending $159M on its production. Neither of these films was given a theatrical release. VERITY has a much better chance of becoming profitable from its run in theatres, needing only $100M to break even. After a worldwide opening weekend of $62.6M, it seems likely that it will get there, despite poor reviews from the critics.

GONE GIRL (2014) is a strong comparison film because both adapt bestselling novels into adult thrillers built around a troubled marriage, unreliable accounts, and uncertainty about a woman’s apparent victimhood. It offers a useful comparison for audience appeal and discussion-driven word of mouth, although VERITY’S box office performance may not reach the same heights that GONE GIRL achieved.

VERITY vs. GONE GIRL

#2 - RESIDENT EVIL

RESIDENT EVIL from Sony finished in second place in its third weekend by grossing $12.5M and dropping 46%. After 17 days, the film has generated $124.9M domestically and $245.4M worldwide. While much has been made about 2026’s two breakout horror films, OBSESSION and BACKROOMS, RESIDENT EVIL has slipped quietly into third place among this year’s horror films. The following chart lists the four top horror hits of the year.

TOP HORROR FILMS OF 2026 (as of 10/4/2026)

RESIDENT EVIL opens in China on Monday October 5th, in time to catch the last few days of the National Day holiday period that runs from October 1 to 7. In 2017, Chinese audiences showed up in droves to watch RESIDENT EVIL: THE FINAL CHAPTER, buying $161.5M in movie tickets, 52% of the film's total worldwide gross. If the new RESIDENT EVIL has anywhere near that same appeal, the contribution from China could push RESIDENT EVIL’s total worldwide box office closer to the top of this list.

RESIDENT EVIL vs. RESIDENT EVIL: AFTERLIFE after 17 Days

#3 - HEART OF THE BEAST

Paramount’s HEART OF THE BEAST finished in third place with $11.0M in its second weekend, a drop of 45% from its opening. This brings its 10-day totals to $38.4M domestically and $98.7M globally. Despite some concern about its relatively expensive $82M budget, the industry reaction to HEART OF THE BEAST has been cautiously positive.

In a September 28th online posting, the box office analyst Scott Mendelson started off by saying bluntly, “Heart of the Beast cost too much.” However, he also appreciates the audience interest it has generated by saying, “You can’t look at these figures and argue that nobody wants to go to the movies anymore.” The challenge Hollywood studios have to balance is investing enough in a movie to make it worthwhile for audiences to see in theatres, while managing its overall budget so that it is also a profitable endeavor.

TheWrap’s Adam Chitwood offered a more optimistic reading, describing the opening as “solid-not-spectacular” and arguing that Pitt’s international drawing power could sustain the film. He concluded that, even with an $82M budget, “its chances of recouping are solid.” That assessment included potential premium video-on-demand revenue, rather than depending exclusively on theatrical receipts. Variety’s reporting was more guarded, emphasizing that overseas business and staying power would be necessary to justify the budget.

We are taking the approach that the film is not going to make it to theatrical profitability. The $82M production cost translates to a target worldwide box office of $200M to be profitable and the $98.7M it has earned in its first ten days does not put it on a track to get there. We now estimate that the film will finish at $140M globally. While this is unfortunate, it is not nearly as bad as DIGGER’s prospects.

HEART OF THE BEAST vs. DOG

#4 - PRIMETIME

PRIMETIME from A24 finished in fourth place in its second weekend, bringing in $8,000,085 domestically. This is $85 higher than DIGGER’s box office, according to Rentrak. PRIMETIME’s 10-day North American totals add up to $34.1M. Amidst the much-publicized financial struggles of HEART OF THE BEAST starring Brad Pitt and DIGGER with Tom Cruise, PRIMETIME has drawn enthusiastic box office commentary, particularly for Robert Pattinson’s star power and its controlled production budget. The harsh reality is that any movie must significantly outsell its production cost to become financially successful. When comparing these three films, PRIMETIME has a very distinct advantage.

Film Profitability

A smaller film with lesser-known actors can be substantially more profitable (or avoid a loss) than a big-budget production with major stars, even when its ticket sales are far lower. The expensive film must attract a much larger audience simply to recover its investment.

Lower budgets give filmmakers and distributors greater financial flexibility. They can target a specific audience, take creative risks, and succeed without appealing to everyone. Revenue from digital rentals, streaming licenses and television can then strengthen the return. Expensive productions face greater pressure to deliver exceptional results across multiple markets. Star power can help sell tickets, but controlling costs often matters more than celebrity when a film’s balance sheet hits the bottom line. Comparing PRIMETIME to HEART OF THE BEST and DIGGER is a prime example.

PRIMETIME vs. NIGHT CRAWLER

#5 - DIGGER

Warner Bros.’ R-rated dark comedy, DIGGER, opened with a domestic box office of $8.0M, finishing in a very disappointing fifth place. Worldwide gross is clocked at $20M. This is a disastrous outcome for a film featuring Tom Cruise – arguably the number one movie star in the world. Alejandro González Iñárritu directs and co-wrote the screenplay with Sabina Berman, Alexander Dinelaris and Nicolás Giacobone. The filmmaker’s previous films include AMORES PERROS (2000), 21 GRAMS (2003), BABEL (2006), BEAUTIFUL (2010), BIRDMAN (2014), THE REVENANT (2015) and BARDO, FALSE CHRONICLE OF A HANDFUL OF TRUTHS (2022). DIGGER marks his first collaboration with Tom Cruise and brings the actor back to an adult ensemble film after many years focusing on action franchises.

Cruise plays Digger Rockwell, a fabulously wealthy oil magnate whose reckless Arctic drilling triggers an environmental catastrophe. Rather than accept responsibility, he launches a frantic campaign to present himself as humanity’s savior. Cruise’s best-known films include TOP GUN (1986), RAIN MAN (1988), JERRY MAGUIRE (1996), MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE (1996) and TOP GUN: MAVERICK (2022). The ensemble includes Riz Ahmed, known for NIGHTCRAWLER (2014) and SOUND OF METAL (2020), as scientist Ganesh; John Goodman, of THE BIG LEBOWSKI (1998) and ARGO (2012), as the U.S. president; Sandra Hüller, of TONI ERDMANN (2016) and ANATOMY OF A FALL (2023); Jesse Plemons, of THE POWER OF THE DOG (2021) and KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON (2023); and Michael Stuhlbarg, of A SERIOUS MAN (2009) and CALL ME BY YOUR NAME (2017). The story satirizes corporate power, political incompetence, and the self-serving promises of powerful men facing a crisis they helped create.

Digger Rockwell is an enormously wealthy Texas oil tycoon accustomed to using his money and political influence to get whatever he wants. His insulated life is thrown into chaos when his company’s drilling operation in Greenland destabilizes an ice shelf, setting off a potentially catastrophic environmental crisis. The man whose business helped create the emergency must now find a way to contain it, while trying to protect his fortune, reputation and control over the people around him. The situation is a darkly comic examination of a powerful businessman who believes he can manage a planetary disaster as easily as any other corporate problem.

As the crisis escalates, DIGGER expands beyond Rockwell’s immediate predicament into a layered story about power, self-delusion, and the stories people tell to justify their behavior. A major narrative turn changes how audiences understand what they have been watching, introducing questions about performance and the challenge of turning real-world fears into entertainment. Its central tension is whether Rockwell can accept responsibility for the damage he has caused or whether his attempt to become humanity’s savior is another expression of the ego that created the danger. Combining environmental anxiety with exaggerated characters and absurd situations, the film explores what happens when the fate of ordinary people rests with wealthy leaders who struggle to see beyond themselves.

Cruise, at 64 years old despite his much younger appearance, has entered a time in life when people look back on their lives to take stock of what they have accomplished. With an estimated net worth of $600M and a film bio that rivals some of the greatest actors of all time, he is still among the biggest stars in the world. Some would even say that he is “the last true movie star,” harkening back to the days of Humphrey Bogart, Clark Gable, Jimmy Stewart, Gary Cooper, John Wayne, Marlon Brando, Paul Newman, and more recently Leonardo DiCaprio. Each of those actors has one thing in common: they have all won Best Actor Academy Awards.

DIGGER can reasonably be viewed as Tom Cruise’s strongest bid in years for a competitive acting Oscar, although that speculation comes from industry pundits more than anything that Cruise has said publicly. With two previous Best Actor nominations for his work on BORN ON THE FOURTH OF JULY (1989) and JERRY McGUIRE (1996) and an Honorary Oscar but no competitive win, Cruise has chosen a conspicuously demanding role: an aging, morally compromised oil billionaire, portrayed through elaborate prosthetics, a Southern accent and a lengthy showcase monologue. His collaborator, Alejandro González Iñárritu, previously directed Leonardo DiCaprio to Best Actor for THE REVENANT (2015), making the partnership particularly attractive from an awards perspective. Variety explicitly framed DIGGER as a potential Cruise Oscar campaign, arguing that its actor-driven ambition gives Academy voters an opportunity to reconsider a star increasingly associated with action spectacle. Cruise’s own explanation emphasizes artistic challenge: he told GQ, “It is the culmination of all my skills,” and called Rockwell “the most challenging character ever.” Those comments support the conclusion that he deliberately sought a substantial acting showcase.

Alas, the critics are not cooperating by giving it only a 51% score on Rotten Tomatoes, while audiences have been more positive with their 71% rating. Rolling Stone said, “It’s impossible to simply dismiss as a mistake, and equally impossible to declare that it works in almost any capacity.” The Times of London felt, “The megastar flattens every scene of Alejandro G Iñárritu’s garish film with his hammy performance as an older, obnoxious oil tycoon.” Vulture led with the review headline, “DIGGER Is a Brazen Act of Self-Sabotage.” However, not every outlet was negative. USA Today supports a Cruise Best Actor nomination: “Cruise pushes his own considerable boundaries and reminds us that the dude can still put on an acting masterclass when he wants.” One wonders if anyone has ever been able to win a Best Actor award while acting in a film that is widely considered this bad. Perhaps Tom is on an impossible mission again.

Having a production budget of around $125M, Warner Bros. will go out with a financial loser on its books as the last film in its slate prior to the Paramount merger next Tuesday. DIGGER would need to generate an estimated $313M in worldwide ticket sales to reach theatrical profitability, and its opening weekend of only $20M worldwide and poor reviews have sealed its fate. One explanation of the problem with this film making money is that Cruise has taken a bold step to appear in a role that is far outside of his public persona, deviating from the expectations of his expansive fan base.

For a comparison film, we are using TROPIC THUNDER, which also had Cruise in a “non-Cruise” typical role. As Les Grossman, he was a profane, bald, larger-than-life movie studio boss with a big gut, heavy body hair, suits that barely contain him, and a constant scowl. At that time, most critics saluted his departure from the norm, and many commented that he was the best part of the movie. It’s a shame that TROPIC THUNDER’s lightning is not striking twice with DIGGER.

DIGGER vs. TROPIC THUNDER