2/20-2/22: GOAT Climbs to the Top

Feb 22, 2026

Sony’s animated sports movie GOAT climbed up from second to first place this weekend, with $17.0M in new ticket sales. Its top finish can be attributed to it not having any substantial new releases to compete with and to it holding up better than all the rest of the movies that placed in the top five last weekend. GOAT declined by only 38% from its opening, whereas WUTHERING HEIGHTS dropped by 57% and CRIME 101 by 60%.

Lionsgate’s I CAN ONLY IMAGINE 2 landed in third in its opening weekend. The total for all films came in at $75.2M, compared to $78.0M last year on this same weekend, which was led by $28.2M from CAPTAIN AMERICA: BRAVE NEW WORLD in its second weekend.

After seven weeks, the Q1 box office is running 3% higher than last year. This year-over-year comparison was as high as +20% after three weeks but has fallen back since that time. However, the five weeks left in the quarter should be strong, as much as 63% higher than the same weeks last yar. Here is our comparison.

Comparing 2026 and 2025 Box Office Totals for Weeks 9-13

Based on the strength of these final five weeks, we expect Q1 2026 to wind up 22% higher than last year’s Q1, which would be a good sign. We are expecting big things from Paramount’s SCREAM 7 (2/27), Disney and Pixar’s HOPPERS (3/6), Warner Bros.’ THE BRIDE (3/6), Universal’s REMINDERS OF HIM (3/13), and especially Amazon MGM’s PROJECT HAIL MARY (3/20) to finish off the quarter. If it plays out as expected, this year’s domestic box office will be well on its way towards reaching a new post-pandemic record, surging past $9B on its way to double digits.

FIRST PLACE

Sony Animation’s sports-themed GOAT made a rare move from second place in its opening weekend to first place in its second weekend. It earned $17.0M in the last three days, which was a drop of 38% from its first three days. That brings its 10-day totals to $58.3M domestically and $102.3M globally. After starting off neck and neck with the horror romance WUTHERING HEIGHTS, GOAT held on to 62% of its opening total this weekend, whereas WUTHERING HEIGHTS was only able to manage 43% of its opening in its second weekend.

In raw numbers, GOAT is measuring up against the picture we chose to compare it with, SPACE JAM from 1996. However, after adjusting SPACE JAM’s original box office numbers to account for 30 years of inflation, GOAT comes up short with only $58.3M after 10 days compared to SPACE JAM’s $100.1M adjusted. That said, GOAT is on track to earn around $90M domestically, which would be a significant accomplishment and make it the top-grossing new release so far this year.

Taking a moment to remember SPACE JAM, 61% of its total box office came from international markets, where the Looney Tunes characters of Bugs Bunny, Daffy Duck, Porky Pig, and others were very well known and beloved. GOAT does not have that asset to fall back on. Also, we cannot overstate the renown of SPACE JAM’s Michael Jordan, who was at that time one of the most recognized people on the planet. 1996 was a pretty good year for the basketball star, who led his Chicago Bulls to a 72–10 record and the fourth of his six NBA Championships. He was lauded with an NBA MVP, Finals MVP, and All-Star MVP in the same season. He was also still basking in the afterglow of global exposure at the 1992 Summer Olympics in Barcelona, where his “Dream Team” of NBA stars won gold. This exposure on the world stage expanded basketball’s international viewership dramatically. His Nike Air Jordan brand generated over $1B in sales worldwide in 1996. Jordan was paid $20M to appear in SPACE JAM, which at that time equaled the per-picture deals of the three best-known actors in the world – Tom Cruise, Mel Gibson, and Jim Carrey. Taking all of this into account, is easy to see how this year’s GOAT pales by comparison.

GOAT vs. SPACE JAM after 10 Days

SECOND PLACE

Warner Bros.’ dark romantic drama WUTHERING HEIGHTS fell from first to second place with a second weekend total of $14.2M, which was 57% down from its debut. This takes the picture’s 10-day totals to $60.0M domestically and $151.7M worldwide. The decline this weekend was the steepest of any movie in this weekend’s top ten. On the one hand, this would have been expected for the romance after Valentine’s Day had come and gone. We expect to see its week-to-week declines stabilize from this point forward, levelling off at a more typical 50% slide.

WUTHERING HEIGHTS is on track to wind up with $185M in worldwide ticket sales for its entire run, slightly lower than the $200M it would need to be profitable. Downstream online sales should more than make up that difference. This is a worthy return for Warner Bros. after going silent on new releases for the last 4 ½ months. Looking further back, WUTHERING HEIGHTS was the ninth consecutive opening weekend win for the studio and its pictures, a streak that continues to amaze. Most experts consider this movie to be a solid commercial release, having won its opening weekend and performing well internationally.

WUTHERING HEIGHTS vs. PRIDE & PREJUDICE after 10 Days

THIRD PLACE

Lionsgate’s I CAN ONLY IMAGINE 2, a sequel to the 2018 surprise hit I CAN ONLY IMAGINE, finished in third place by bringing in $8.0M in its opening. I CAN ONLY IMAGINE came out in March of 2018 and earned $83.5M from its theatrical run. After that, it found a second life on Netflix with a 12-month run from December 2023 to December 2024, which helped convince producers that a sequel would appeal to fans who wanted to see more of MercyMe. Andrew Erwin and Jon Erwin, who wrote and directed the original, remained deeply involved in shaping the sequel’s tone and faith-forward storytelling. Their films often focus on stories of redemption after personal struggle and have been major contributors to the faith-based film market. In 2019, the Erwins co-founded Kingdom Story Company, focused on inspirational storytelling, having a first-look partnership with Lionsgate for distribution.

The plot of I CAN ONLY IMAGINE 2 continues the story of Christian singer-songwriter Bart Millard from the first movie, after the explosive success of his song “I Can Only Imagine,” which became a crossover hit. The sequel shifts from Bart’s painful childhood and reconciliation with his father to the pressures of sudden fame. As his band MercyMe tours the country performing in arenas and their songs dominate Christian radio, Bart wrestles with impostor syndrome, creative burnout, and the strain success puts on his marriage and relationships with his bandmates. The film explores how unresolved wounds don’t simply disappear after forgiveness, and how faith must be lived beyond one defining moment. It picks up emotionally where the first film ends, showing that redemption is a beginning, not an ending—while expanding the scope from personal healing to public calling. Ultimately, it tells a story of perseverance, humility, and the cost of staying authentic when the spotlight grows brighter. John Michael Finley returned to portray Bart Millard. Bart Millard is the lead singer of the Christian band MercyMe and the central figure of both the original and the sequel. Dennis Quaid played Bart’s father in the first film; flashbacks and archival material were reportedly used to preserve the emotional continuity of that storyline, which was so important in the first film.

In I CAN ONLY IMAGINE 2, the story expands beyond personal redemption to show the inner workings of the Contemporary Christian Music (CCM) industry. As Bart Millard and MercyMe experience success, the film depicts how Christian radio promotion functions, including label reps pitching singles to faith-based stations and the importance of chart performance on Christian airplay rankings. It explores touring economics – church bookings versus arena shows – and the financial realities of merchandise sales, ministry partnerships, and record contracts. Not only does faith play a role, but it is also a big industry with all the pressures associated with the rest of the music business. The Kingdom Story approach to marketing stands in contrast to that of Angel Studios. It relies on traditional studio approaches involving national marketing spend on promotions, displaying trailers in theaters, TV spots and digital ads. It also leans into partnerships with Christian radio, faith influencers, and certain key churches, which are treated to early screenings for pastors and leaders. Angel Studios, on the other hand, uses a crowdfunding model called “Pay it Forward”, with the 2,000,000 members of the Angel Guild community investing directly in the studio’s creative projects. This employs grassroots mobilization via its app and email list, with audience members actively buying tickets for others. They make minimal use of traditional TV advertising, instead relying on social media and other direct-to-consumer communications. In short, Angel turns its audience into marketers. Kingdom Story markets to the audience. Both models have the potential to be successful.

Critics were mostly supportive of the first movie at 69% on Rotten Tomatoes, while the audience loved the film at 91%. For the sequel, critics weigh in at 62% while audiences have given it a 99% score. The production budget on I CAN ONLY IMAGINE 2 was $18M, or two and a half times that of the original’s $7M. Based upon its domestic opening of $8.0M it would appear that it could be a challenge to sell $45M worldwide, the amount it would take for the movie to turn a profit. The original earned only 3% of its total gross from foreign markets, so there will most likely not be much coming in for the sequel from international sales. While the original movie wound up with a very healthy 12-to-1 ratio of worldwide box office to projection budget, the sequel appears to have fallen into the trap of costing a lot more to make than the original and selling a lot less at the box office.

I CAN ONLY IMAGINE 2 vs. I CAN ONLY IMAGINE

FOURTH PLACE

Amazon MGM’s action crime drama, CRIME 101, finished fourth with $5.8M and a drop of 60%. This brings its 10-day totals to $24.7M in the U.S. and Canada and $46.3M worldwide. In raw numbers, CRIME 101 is performing slightly ahead of the film we chose to compare it to, HEAT. However, after adjusting HEAT’s 1995 totals for inflation, CRIME 101’s performance appears to be much less rewarding. In fact, CRIME 101 is not living up to its pre-release expectations. This begs the question of whether it could have done better on a different release date, instead of going up against WUTHERING HEIGHTS and GOAT on Valentine’s Day weekend. As a result, CRIME 101 came in third place in its opening and has dropped down to fourth place this weekend. This weekend, there was only one new wide release to reach a meaningful audience: I CAN ONLY IMAGINE 2, a film of a very different genre. Next weekend will be dominated by SCREAM 7, whose fans are likely to be mostly the younger 20s and 30-year-olds sometimes. CRIME 101’s crime thriller aesthetic appeals to serious moviegoers, who skew older. It may have lost some of its potential opening weekend audience to WUTHERING HEIGHTS, which appealed to a similar demographic.

On the bright side, Amazon MGM will follow on shortly from CRIME 101 with what should be the biggest release in the studio’s history since it became Amazon-owned. PROJECT HAIL MARY opens on March 20^th, with advance tickets generating strong interest when they went on sale last week. We believe that PROJECT HAIL MARY will be the highest-grossing film of the quarter, despite only having two weeks within the quarter to rack up those sales. It could also be one of the biggest movies of 2026. Amazon MGM’s current record holder for top-grossing movie is RED ONE, which earned $97M in 2024, and PROJECT HAIL MARY will most likely surpass that amount in its first week to 10 days in theatres.

CRIME 101 vs. HEAT

FIFTH PLACE

SEND HELP, the psychological thriller from Disney’s 20^th Century Studios, kept itself in the conversation with a #5 finish in its fourth weekend. It earned $4.5M over the past three days, a drop of 49% from last weekend, and has now taken in $55.5M domestically and $83.0M worldwide in its 24 days in theatres. It had been the highest-grossing movie of the year in the domestic market, before being overtaken this weekend. In fact, here are the top three domestic releases of 2026.

Top Three Films Released So Far in 2026

We expect SEND HELP to finish up with around $65M domestically and $100M worldwide. This would leave its total worldwide gross approximately $50M below the $150M target it would need to earn a profit. However, the film was a critical success and should do well in the afterlife of online viewing.

Where Are We as of 2/19/2026

After the first seven weeks of 2026, the current year’s domestic box office stands at 103% compared with 2025, 125% compared with 2024, 100% compared with 2023, and 75% compared with 2019.