With a massive $150.0M opening weekend, Universal’s WICKED: FOR GOOD jumped over the high bar set by the first WICKED movie one year ago, passing its $112.5M debut by a healthy 33%. It did well everywhere, with a total worldwide box office of $226.0M in its first three days. This makes WICKED: FOR GOOD the 31st highest-grossing domestic opening of all time, and was responsible this weekend for 81% of the $185.5M total box office for all films in theatres.
Last year, WICKED was released at the same time as Paramount’s GLADIATOR II, which earned $55.0M of its own to give that pre-holiday weekend $202.4M in total box office. The fact that WICKED: FOR GOOD, on its own, came close to beating last year’s one-two punch of WICKED and GLADIATOR II is remarkable and has given theatre owners a much-needed shot in the arm.
The box office will get even hotter when Disney’s ZOOTOPIA 2 opens on Wednesday, a direct rival to last year’s MOANA 2, which also landed on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving. ZOOTOPIA 2 will have big shoes to fill to match MOANA 2’s combined 5-day total of $225.4M.
Last year’s Thanksgiving weekend generated $276.8M in ticket sales, a record for the holiday weekend. Even with WICKED: FOR GOOD’s fantastic opening and strong numbers expected from ZOOTOPIA 2, the 10-day period bracketed by the weekends before and after Thanksgiving may not reach last year’s record haul, but could rise to as much as 90% of that amount.
Looking ahead, the performance of AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH over the last two weeks of the year is the sole remaining factor in whether 2025 can reach $9B in total annual domestic box office. AVATAR 3’s advance ticket sales began last Monday, and fans were eager to secure 3D IMAX seats quickly. This is a positive sign, since James Cameron’s upcoming AVATAR sequel is still one month away from its opening and most fans won’t turn their attention to it until after Thanksgiving.
FIRST PLACE
WICKED: FOR GOOD is the second movie in Universal’s two-part movie series based on the hit Broadway musical, which is itself based on characters from the 1939 movie THE WIZARD OF OZ. With its tremendous success this weekend, WICKED: FOR GOOD has sustained the momentum that WICKED created last year, with additional fuel coming from Comcast’s masterful marketing campaign that leveraged both traditional studio marketing from Universal and additional exposure on NBC. WICKED: FOR GOOD wraps up many of the plot directions established in the first movie and Broadway musical.
Even before Wicked opened on Broadway in the late 1990s, producer Marc Platt partnered with Universal to acquire its film rights. In 2001, Platt and Universal added film rights to the novel The Life and Times of the Wicked Witch of the West by Gregory Maguire. It took until 2016 for Universal to greenlight the movie project, but it languished until 2021 when director Jon M. Chu (CRAZY RICH ASIANS from 2016 and IN THE HEIGHTS from 2021) was brought on board.
On April 26, 2022, Chu announced that his movie would be broken into two parts, shot simultaneously but released separately. In a post on social media, Chu explained, “It became impossible to wrestle the story of Wicked into a single film without doing some real damage to it … as we tried to cut songs or trim characters, those decisions began to feel like fatal compromises to the source material.”
This meant that while the Broadway play had a running time of approximately 2 hours and 30 minutes, under Chu’s guidance the two films would have a combined running time of 5 hours and 2 minutes. Principal photography began in June 2023 and wrapped 13 months later in April 2024. A final piece to the puzzle fell into place on December 16, 2024 when it was announced that WICKED PART 2 would be given the name WICKED: FOR GOOD, paying homage to the song from the Broadway play.
Since the two movies were shot back-to-back, the key elements were all kept in place, especially the cast and sets. It is hard to imagine anyone other than Arianna Grande and Cynthia Erivo filling the lead roles of Glinda Upland, the Good Witch of the South, and Elphaba Thropp, the Wicked Witch of the West.
Jeff Goldblum has fully transformed himself into the Wonderful Wizard of Oz and Michelle Yeoh fills the role of Madame Morrible, the powerful and manipulative sorceress who works for The Wizard. An essential component of the movies is the physical world envisioned by Chu, who pushed to create enormous real sets whenever possible, rather than relying on CG stages. One example of his spectacular vision is the Emerald City set, which was the largest ever created on the soundstages at Sky Studios Elstree outside London.
That’s quite a feat, because Elstree was also used to filming STAR WARS and INDIANA JONES films. The detail required the construction of full streets, villages, markets, forests, and interiors with multiple levels for choreography and camera movement. Several sets featured in the film’s lavish musical numbers supported hundreds of actors at one time.
Sets were adorned with massive vegetation that included real flowers and climbing plants that required daily support staff to install and maintain the greenery. It has been reported that 9 million tulip bulbs were planted over the course of the production. Since virtually everyone was already familiar with the story, it took tremendous skill for the actors to breathe new life into the characters and make the story feel fresh and alive.
WICKED opened on November 22, 2024, and went on to earn $474.6M domestically and $758.9M worldwide. It was also nominated for ten Academy Awards, including Best Picture, and took home two Oscars for Best Costume Design and Best Production Design. After WICKED’s financial and creative success, much has been expected from WICKED: FOR GOOD.
This weekend’s huge opening of $150.0M shows that the high expectations for PART 2 were warranted. Critics have been somewhat satisfied by giving it a 71% score on Rotten Tomatoes, which is, admittedly lower than the 85% score that the first WICKED received. However, moviegoers have been pleased with both parts, giving both movies a 95% audience score.
Here are a few examples of what critics are saying. The Hollywood Reporter commented, “The doubts that surfaced when it was first announced that Jon M. Chu’s screen adaptation of Wicked was to be released in two parts are not exactly erased by the two hours-plus of this second installment.
But it’s safe to assume the millions of fans who have made the blockbuster stage musical a global phenomenon won’t be complaining.” Roger Ebert.com says, “If you enjoyed [the technical achievements of the first movie] and hope to see more of it, don’t you worry: The darker tone that marks this second half doesn’t mean there’s an absence of wonder in the wonderful land of Oz.” Variety writes, “The film fixes a common complaint of the show, giving the pair more scenes (and songs) together in this final stretch, which now feels like a robust tale unto itself.” Not everyone was thrilled with the new film and its storyline. The Film Verdict noted, “Wicked fans can delight in one final visit to Oz, while those of us less enamored can hope that the yellow brick road ends here. For good.”
WICKED and WICKED: FOR GOOD each cost $150M to produce, requiring $375M in total worldwide sales to be profitable. WICKED pushed well past that threshold by earning $758.9M globally and WICKED: FOR GOOD is well on its way after its massive $150.0M opening weekend. If fact, WICKED: FOR GOOD could well pass $375M worldwide in its first seven days, and be even more profitable than the first movie.
WICKED dropped by only 28% in its second weekend, which contributed greatly to last year’s record-breaking post-Thanksgiving box office. While it is currently running ahead of last year’s WICKED, there’s a chance that WICKED: FOR GOOD will come down more quickly, if it turns out that a higher percentage of the movie’s fans ran right out to see it. One of WICKED’s strengths was that it was still playing in 3,177 domestic locations on Christmas Day. If WICKED: FOR GOOD can play as widely this year, there’s a chance that it will reach $1B in global ticket sales. Here’s a box office comparison of the two WICKED movies.
WICKED: FOR GOOD (2025) vs. WICKED (2024)
SECOND PLACE
Lionsgate’s NOW YOU SEE ME: NOW YOU DON’T fell to second place in its second weekend, earning $9.1M and dropping 57% from its debut. After ten days, the magician-filled movie has grossed $36.8M domestically and $146.2M globally, roughly on par with NOW YOU SEE ME 2 from 2016 but well behind the original NOW YOU SEE ME from 2013. As we mentioned last week, the franchise has done amazingly well in foreign markets, with 73% of the first two films’ total box office coming from outside North America.
After ten days, the current sequel has taken in 75% of its total gross from international markets. This is a positive sign, given that international markets have contributed a declining percentage of the box office for most Hollywood movies this year. Since the NOW YOU SEE ME movies have relied heavily on international box office, its continued global success will boost the chances for additional chapters in the franchise to be created.
NOW YOU SEE ME Movies after 10 Days
THIRD PLACE
Disney and 20th Century’s PREDATOR: BADLANDS finished in third place in its third weekend with an additional $6.3M, a decline of 51%. After 17 days, the sci-fi sequel has taken in $76.3M domestically and $159.6M globally. This film will wind up being the highest-grossing movie of the PREDATOR series, not including movies in which The Predator faces off against Alien.
However, it will be short of the inflation-adjusted box office of the original 1987 PREDATOR, which would equal $281.1M in current dollars. PREDATOR: BADLANDS needs to reach a total gross of $263.0M to be profitable, and we estimate that it will finish its theatrical run with about $180M in global box office. This may very well bring the curtain down on standalone PREDATOR movies.
PREDATOR: BADLANDS vs OTHER PREDATOR MOVIES after 17 Days
FOURTH PLACE
Paramount’s THE RUNNING MAN fell from second to fourth place in its second weekend by grossing $5.8M, a rather steep decline of 65%. After ten days, the film has grossed $27.0M domestically and $48.3M worldwide.
Before the film’s opening, some forecasters saw this action sequel as having the potential to earn $100M domestically, but it now appears that the movie will fall far short of that. Glen Powell has become as a well-recognized and capable leading man in Hollywood and casting him in the starring role of an action movie based on a Steven King novel and directed by Edgar Wright seemed to be a sure thing.
In hindsight, a release date of 12/12 may have worked better, coming when there would have been limited competition in the week before AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH. Its opening weekend loss to NOW YOU SEE ME: NOW YOU DON’T has left a stain on this picture’s commercial record, followed this weekend by the overwhelming eclipse of WICKED: FOR GOOD.
THE RUNNING MAN (2025) vs. THE RUNNING MAN (1987) after 10 Days
FIFTH PLACE
Searchlight’s comic drama RENTAL FAMILY was able to secure fifth place in its opening weekend with $3.5M in ticket sales. The film’s storyline follows Daniel, an aging American actor living in Tokyo whose once-promising career has dwindled to small gigs in commercials and other bit parts. Struggling with loneliness, culture shock, and a sense of personal failure, he stumbles upon an unusual opportunity: a position with a Tokyo-based “rental family” agency that provides actors to play spouses, parents, friends, or companions for customers who need emotional or social support.
Daniel becomes the agency’s “token foreigner,” hired for roles that require a Western face, everything from pretending to be a business associate to posing as a child’s father during a private-school interview. As he becomes closer to Aiko, a fellow rental performer, and Shinji, the agency’s owner, Daniel begins to see how deeply many clients depend on these manufactured relationships to fill painful gaps in their lives. As odd as it may sound, the film is based on real-life Japanese businesses that offer “rental family” or “rental friend” services.
This unique business model sprang up in Japan in the 1990’s and it is estimated that over 300 companies exist today that offer these services. One of the biggest firms in the business is called Family Romance that employes 20 full-time staff and has a database of 1,200 freelance actors. The average hourly fees charged to clients range from $65-$250 depending on the degree of difficulty and the length of the contract. It is estimated that this type of service generates tens of millions of dollars annually.
The film is directed by Hikari who became familiar with U.S. audiences when she directed multiple episodes of the Netflix series “Beef” in 2023. The lead character Daniel is performed by Brendan Fraser in his first movie appearance since winning Best Actor for THE WHALE in 2023. Fraser noted in an interview that, although the role looked like a dream job (going to Tokyo”), once he began the project he realized that the work involved doing a lot of research and cultural adaptation.
Fraser learned Japanese and immersed himself for weeks ahead of filming to acclimatize himself to Tokyo and its culture. The film uses English and Japanese dialogue, and Fraser’s character is the only non-Japanese speaker at the rental family agency, reflecting the “token white guy” theme of his jobs.
The film premiered at the Toronto International Film Festival on September 6, 2025 to positive reviews. It currently has a very solid 87% critics score on Rotten Tomatoes and adoring 97% score from audiences. Here are some examples of the reviews. The Wall Street Journal says, “It’s a strange idea for a movie that, while lacking such structural niceties as an obvious goal to be met, proves an oddly touching experience.” Yahoo said, “Rental Family is a heart-warming jewel of a movie that is a dazzling showcase of Japan’s urban and natural beauty …”. Deadline offers up “It’s the kind of lower-key humane comedy we don’t see often these days.” On the somewhat negative side from The Guardian: “Despite Fraser’s thoughtful performance and a promisingly unique concept … the film skims these themes, favoring sentimental and cute moments over deeper exploration.” “It’s narrative lacks cohesion and fails to connect its episodic scenes meaningfully.”
With an estimated production budget at $20M the film will need to get to a worldwide box office of $50M to be profitable. For a comparison film, we are choosing LOST IN TRANSLATION from 2003 that dealt with Bill Murray’s as an American actor faced with cross-cultural loneliness, identity drift, and quiet intimacy. While it’s not the exact same story line, both films deal with a main character’s attempt to adapt culturally.
RENTAL FAMILY (2025) vs. LOST IN TRANSLATION (2003)
Where Are We as of November 20, 2025
After 46 weeks, the 2025 domestic box office stands at 103% compared to the same point in 2024 and 74% compared to 2019.
