The final two weeks of 2025 have begun, with a wide variety of holiday openings determining how the year will finish. First among them is Disney and 20th Century’s AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH, which took in $88.0M its debut. Additional support came from three other new releases, Angel Studios’ DAVID, Lionsgate’s THE HOUSEMAID, and Paramount’s THE SPONGE BOB MOVIE: SEARCH FOR SQUARE PANTS.
This same weekend last year generated $142.3M in ticket sales, led by the opening weekends for Paramount’s SONIC THE HEDGEHOG 3 with $60.0M and Disney’s MUFASA: THE LION KING with $35.4M. Comparing the two years, weekend 51 this year was 26% higher than the same weekend last year. This makes it all but guaranteed that the last two weeks of 2025 will come in higher than that same period in 2024.
Next week, three new wide-release movies will arrive in theatres, including Sony’s ANACONDA, Focus Features’ SONG SUNG BLUE, and A24’s expansion of MARTY SUPREME. We project that the total domestic box office for 2025 will end up at $8.6B, a slim 1% increase over 2024, but only 3% decline from 2023.
Here is our review of the top five movies of the weekend.
FIRST PLACE
Disney and 20th Century sci-fi sequel AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH opened in first place with weekend sales of $88.0M. More impressively,y it has already done a massive $345.0M in worldwide sales. This is the third entry in James Cameron’s AVATAR movie saga, with an opening that was lower than the two earlier films in the series, with AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER earning $134.2M in its first three days 2022 and the original AVATAR earning $116.6M in its debut, after adjusting its actual $77.0M box office from 2009 to account for 16 years of inflation.
Cameron is one of the most commercially-successful filmmakers of all time, with his nine movies before this weekend earning $9B in global box office. This trails only Steven Spielberg’s $10B, noting that Spielberg’s number comes from the 35 movies he has made in his career.
Cameron made his first movie in 1982, the horror thriller PIRANHA II: THE SPAWNING, which earned cringeworthyhy Rotten Tomatoes score of 4% from critics and 12% from audiences. From this modest beginning, all his films since then have been winners, with AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH as his tenth feature as director. And after its theatrical run, it will certainly earn the $1B needed for Cameron to pass Spielberg in the global box office race.
Cameron is responsible for three of the top four highest-grossing films of all time: AVATAR at #1 with $2.92B, AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER at #3 with $2.32B, and TITANIC at #4 with $2.26B. His films have been nominated for 29 Academy Awards andhave won nine times. Cameron himself has been nominated six times and won three of those. His three highest-grossing movies were all nominated for a Best Picture Academy Award, with TITANIC winning in 1998. Cameron has earned a reputation as a visionary filmmaker, praised by movie critics, his industry peers, and collaborators. He exhibits a rare combination of being an engineer, storyteller, and showman.
Cameron has created a five-film vision for the AVATAR storyline, with the tale of the AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH chapter taking shape while Cameron’s team was working on THE WAY OF WATER. In fact, the way that FIRE AND ASH turned out is said to have caused significant rewrites of the early outlines for the next movie in the series. FIRE AND ASH picks up after the events of THE WAY OF WATER, looking beyond Pandora’s oceans to its harsher, volcanic regions where survival is challenged by scarcity, heat, and conflict. The leading characters, Jake Sully (Sam Worthington) and Neytiri (Zoe Saldana), strive to protect their family and tribe, facing not only human invaders but also internal divisions among the Na’vi people.
The film explores how grief, vengeance, and a struggle to survive can divide individuals and cultures. Neytiri, carrying a profound personal loss, is pushed into a difficult moral dilemma in which she must confront whether rage can coexist with leadership. Jake faces the conflict of being both a father and a soldier, as protecting his children is in tension with the demands of war.
Darker than the two previous installments, FIRE AND ASH explores the idea that Pandora is not guaranteed to be a paradise, but instead that its ultimate fate is shaped by the choices of its people. This film sets the stage for future chapters, showing how cycles of destruction can either consume societies or force them to change.
Critics have weighed in with a somewhat disappointing 68% score on Rotten Tomatoes, with the audience expressing more enthusiasm with a 91% rating. Here’s what some of the critics are saying. Bloomberg News said, “Cameron spins moments of genuine awe, even if he frustratingly repeats familiar beats of THE WAY OF WATER. Still, there’s also something comforting about returning to this land.” Deadline said, “Cameron knows how to do spectacular better than anyone, and this AVATAR builds out its worlds to such a high degree I would dare to say you could put the first two films together and it still wouldn’t add up to the fierce levels and magnitude of the fight in this one.”
The Film Verdict weighed in with “As a sizzle reel for the next wave in CG-animation technology, AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH delivers; as the third chapter of a story that is meant to be moving, or even engaging, this latest chapter once again fails.” Finally, The Toronto Star, “A certain sameness has set in. The film, an extension of the previous chapter, AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER, feels like it’s hitting multiple speed bumps on a road it has already driven twice.”
Cameron is known for pushing the envelope in his films, usually with little regard to cost, which has resulted in his films being among the most expensive ever made. The current record holder for production budget is Disney and Lucasfilm’s STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS, which cost $447M in 2015. Cameron’s previous two AVATAR films cost $587M combined and earned $5.2B in global ticket sales, making for a very profitable 9 to 1 ratio of box office to budget.
Therefore, even though Cameron spends a lot to make his films, they have also been among the surest bets in Hollywood. FIRE AND ASH is said to have cost $400M to make, and will require around $1B in worldwide box office to begin to make a profit. While in many cases a target of this magnitude would leave its backers on tenterhooks, Disney has every reason to believe that they will make their money back on FIRE AND ASH within the first 2-3 weeks of its release.
Cameron’s movies have been worldwide phenomena, with the first two AVATARS earning 72% of their total box office outside of North America. Perhaps the only caution about the current and future success of AVATAR has come from Cameron himself, who has linked the potential for any future sequels to the box office success of FIRE AND ASH. Cameron is well-aware of the high cost of his movies and knows that his films must earn a lot of money in theatres iforDisney to continue to fund him to make more chapters. AVATAR 4 is most likely assured, with Disney having already announced a target opening date of December 21, 2029. For our comparison films, we have chosen the first two AVATAR films.
AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH, AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER, and AVATAR
SECOND PLACE
Angel Studios’ DAVID, an animated retelling of the life of the biblical King David, finished in second place in its opening weekend with $22.0M domestically. This means DAVID delivered the highest grossing opening weekend in the studio’s history. DAVID is one of the most ambitious projects ever undertaken by Angel Studios. When the film was announced in October of 2021, the studio had already been involved for a yearinf early development.
The first and most important decision was how the film would be animated. Angel had just been founded and had neither the budget nor the in-house expertise to carry it off internally. In the fall of 2020, the studio explored international animation partners with the ability to deliver feature film quality on a tight budget. Angel’s leadership was looking for animation studios with other features to their credit, experience with musical storytelling, and more flexible and cost-effective teams outside of the traditional structure of Hollywood.
Sunrise Animation Studios, based in Cape Town, South Africa, rose to the top after submitting visual development samples, early character tests, and pipeline demonstrations. Angel selected Sunrise after reviewing their final budget modeling and scheduling plan. Now, four years later, the film has come out just in time for the Christmas Holiday. The picture was directed by the team of Phil Cunningham and Brent Dawes, who also co-wrote and directed Young David, a five-part animated miniseries about the early years of the biblical character David. Those episodes were available for free during 2023-2024 on the Angel Studios platform and have served as advanced marketing for DAVID.
To keep budgets low, actors were chosen who had voice-over experience but were relatively unknown to the general public. The production scale was big, involving over 400 crew members globally. To project an epic scale, drones were used to create a visual reference for vast spaces and elevation changes. While animation helps make the film more “family” friendly, the filmmakers were adamant about being as accurate as possible in retelling the story. The team consulted biblical scholars and archaeologists to avoid winding up with a “generic fantasy Bible world.”
Critics have been somewhat supportive, giving DAVID a 67% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. As is always the case with an Angel Studios film, audiences are thrilled by giving it a near-perfect 98% score. Angel has a knack (and a system) to deliver exactly what their hand-picked audiences are looking for. Here are a few examples of critics’ comments. The San Jose Mercury News said, “Phil Cunningham and Brent Dawes — who also wrote the screenplay — venture beyond that well-known slab of the story to give us another timeless moral tale about standing up for what we believe.” RogerEbert.com says, “We settle back and enjoy a well-produced, visually impressive, character-driven fable about the man who would be king.” On the other hand, The Wall Street Journal offers, “David may be a towering figure of biblical lore, but this telling of a chapter of his story is not merely animated, it’s cartoonish.”
With a $61M production budget, this is the most expensive film Angel Studios has ever made. In virtually any other case, the entire cost would be borne by the studio. However, Angel has a unique approach to financing, asking its Guild members (fans) to chip in their own money to make the film. This produced $46M to offset the studio’s overall production costs. In fact, Angel claims that DAVID is “the largest audience-funded film in history.”
Rather than the typical ratio of $2.5 at the box office for every $1 in production budget to be profitable, the heavy contribution from the Angel Guild members has left an effective budget of only $15M, which means that the break-even point on this film could come as soon as it earns only $38M in global sales. After the opening weekend of $22.0M in the U.S. and Canada and a fertile run ahead over the Christmas holiday period, we think that Angel will have another financial winner on its hands. For a comparison film, we chose THE KING OF KINGS, an animated faith-based film that Angel released in April this year, one week before Easter Sunday.
DAVID vs. KING OF KINGS
THIRD PLACE
Lionsgate’s psychological thriller THE HOUSEMAID finished in third place in its opening weekend with $19.0M in the U.S. and Canada. The film is directed by Paul Feig, known for making female-friendly comedies beginning with the legendary BRIDESMAIDS from 2011.
He followed that up with THE HEAT in 2013, SPY in 2015, and a female-led reboot of GHOSTBUSTERS in 2016. With all the history in comedies, what led to Feig directing a suspense drama like THE HOUSEMAID? Feig did have some background with more serious storylines, notably in A SIMPLE FAVOR in 201,6 which blended psychological tension, erotic intrigue,ue and Hitchcockian misdirection.
Feig showed skill in creating a mystery filled with morally ambiguous characters. Blake Lively and Anna Kendrick co-starred as a pair who are initially drawn to each other, but with complications developing over time, showing that the relationship is not what it once seemed to be. THE HOUSEMAID occupies a similar lane as a glossy, female-driven, twist-heavy domestic suspense. Over his career, Feig has shown women with complex roles who appeal to a primarily female audience.
The movie THE HOUSEMAID is based on the novel of the same name by Freida McFadden. The book was an immediate success when it was published in 2022, spending many weeks as a New York Times bestseller and selling over two million copies to-date. McFadden followed up in 2023 with The Housemaid’s Secret and in 2024 with The Housemaid is Watching. The three novels together have sold five million copies worldwide.
The movie focuses on the character of Millie Calloway, played by Sydney Sweeney, a young woman with a troubled past who is trying to rebuild her life. Struggling to find honest work after previous setbacks, she accepts a job as a live-in housemaid with the affluent Winchester family, with Nina Winchester played by Amanda Seyfried and Andrew Winchester played by Brandon Sklenar. At first, the lavish mansion and seemingly perfect employers appear to be a dream opportunity for Millie, but soon she realizes that the household is rife with secrets, manipulation, ion, and psychological tension. Nina’s unpredictable behavior and the family’s hidden intrigue pull Millie deeper into a world of seduction, power plays, and danger, where nothing is as it appears.
Critics have been mostly positive about the picture, giving it a 75% score on Rotten Tomatoes. The audience is even more entranced with a resounding 93% rating. Here are some examples of the critics’ reviews. The Associated Press said, “Santa left us a present this holiday season, and it is exactly what we didn’t know we needed: A twisty, psychological horror-thriller with nudity that’s all wrapped up in an empowerment message.” TheWrap called it a slice of “glorious, angry, hilarious, nail-biting fun from a director, writer and cast who all know exactly what they’re doing, and relish in the fact that they’re practically getting away with murder.” USA Today offers up that “director Paul Feig’s movie doesn’t hit all the marks of its addictive source material, but the thing is plenty wild enough to be a holiday guilty pleasure.”
The movie was made on a controlled production budget of $35M, meaning that it will need to earn $88M worldwide to be profitable. Based upon its solid opening of $19.0M, it is well on its way to that milestone. Moviegoing should be busy for the next three weeks, and should carry this movie to the finish line and beyond. For a comparison title, we look to Feig’s A SIMPLE FAVOR.
THE HOUSEMAID vs. A SIMPLE FAVOR
FOURTH PLACE
Paramount’s THE SPONGEBOB MOVIE: SEARCH FOR SQUAREPANTS tallied $16.0M in its opening weekend to finish in fourth place at the box office. While this is the fourth SPONGEBOB movie, THE SPONGEBOB MOVIE: SPONGE ON THE RUN opened at the height of the COVID pandemic on August 14, 2020, and played in only 324 theatres in Canada, without distribution in the U.S. or internationally. Under those very difficult circumstances, SPONGE ON THE RUN grossed a mere $4.8M, so we will not include its fate in our discussion of this weekend’s release.
The SPONGEBOB movies are based on characters from the animated TV series that has played on Nickelodeon since 1999. The considerable success of SpongeBob SquarePants is measured by its having consistently strong ratings over its 25 years and counting, wide distribution globally, and considerable revenue from merchandising and other ancillary sources. SpongeBob SquarePants is the longest-running series in Nickelodeon’s history, generating billions of dollars annually in merchandise (toys, apparel, games), home entertainment, streaming, ng and theme park attractions. SpongeBob’s characters are known throughout the world, with its programs translated into 30 languages and airing in 170 countries. It has been a key part of Nickelodeon’s financial success and played arole ine Paramount’s valuation during Skydance’s pursuit of the studio.
The movie is the directorial debut for Derek Drymon, who was the obvious choice when Paramount decided to stay in-house for the movie, since Drymon has been both a director and supervising director of the TV show for multiple seasons. The main roles in the movie were voiced by the actors from the TV show. In fact, it has been a long-held tradition with the SpongeBob movies to offer voice roles to the incumbent TV performers, since the characters’ voices are considered part of the brand itself. The only exception to this movie was the casting of Mark Hamill as the Flying Dutchman rather than Brian Doyle-Murray, who plays the character on the TV show.
Murray was consulted in this decision, and all is well as Murray continues to be the character’s voice on TV. The plot of the movie follows SpongeBob as he sets out on a perilous adventure to prove he’s a “big, grown-up sponge.” When the legendary Flying Dutchman kidnaps Mr. Krabs and threatens Bikini Bottom, SpongeBob leaves the safety of home and journeys into dangerous, mysterious waters. Joined by Patrick and familiar friends, SpongeBob faces monsters, tests his courage, and confronts self-doubt. Along the way, he learns that bravery isn’t about being fearless, but about caring for others.
Critics are solid on the film with their 88% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, the best of the series. No audience score has been published as of this writing. Here is a sampling of some of the critics’ comments. The Hollywood Reporter says, “Even with this impressive legacy to uphold, THE SPONGEBOB MOVIE: SEARCH FOR SQUAREPANTS easily delivers another rib-tickling, delightfully frantic fourth installment of the series.” The Film Verdict opines, “Beyond the visual silliness and the knockabout physical comedy, this sweet adaptation of the long-running TV hit sneaks in a lovely message about what it really means to be a man.” The Seattle Times offers up that “Everybody involved seems to be having a blast making this latest ‘SpongeBob’ a funny, fast-paced pleasure.” Finally, the ever-serious New York Times weighs in negatively with “No, this is a movie that is bad on its own terms, mainly for its cynical philosophy of children’s entertainment.”
Director Drymon is to be congratulated for pulling off a well-liked film on a budget of $65M, $10M less than it cost to make 2015’s SPONGE OUT OF WATER. This film will need to earn $163M worldwide to be profitable, which seems quite likely since it will be the only new kids movie playing over the Christmas and New Year’s holiday season. It has been well-received, and its 2015 predecessor SPONGE OUT OF WATER grossed $325.2M worldwide. The new movie can earn half as much and still be profitable. For comparison, we have selected the two earlier SPONGEBOB films that saw a wide release.
THE SPONGEBOB MOVIE: SEARCH FOR SQUAREPANTS vs. EARLIER OTHER SPONGEBOB MOVIES
FIFTH PLACE
Disney’s ZOOTOPIA 2 dropped from first place last weekend to fifth place, adding another $14.5M to its domestic total. That brings its 26-day total to $282.8M domestically and $1.3B globally. It has already exceeded the total worldwide gross of the original ZOOTOPIA, which brought in $1.0B in 2016. Together with AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH, Disney will be able to celebrate having two of the best-performing movies of the 2025 holiday season. These films will secure Disney’s place as the market share leader among studios for 2025.
Warner Bros. had established the leading position through the first three quarters of the year, but decided to sit out the fourth quarter with no new releases, allowing Disney to pull ahead. We expect Disney to finish the year with approximately 29% market share, and Warner Bros. to come in second with around 21%.
ZOOTOPIA 2 has been the strongest carryover film from Thanksgiving, doing well to maintain a high number of locations for many weeks. In fact, it has only lost 11% of the original number of locations that played the movie on its opening on 11/26. Here is how ZOOTOPIA 2 compares with the original ZOOTOPIA at this same point in their releases.
ZOOTOPIA 2 vs. ZOOTOPIA after 26 Days in Release
SPECIAL NOTE
A24’s MARTY SUPREME kicked off its theatrical run with a limited six-location debut in Los Angeles and New York, where it earned $875,000, which divides out to a stratospheric $145,833 per location average. This is the high-water mark for any film openinginf 2025. The hyperkinetic sports drama stars Timothee Chalamet as a 1950-s era smooth-talking hustler who reinvents himself as a master ping-pong player and self-proclaimed guru of success and masculinity.
The movie has a unique blend of world-class table tennis and con man behavior with a touch of organized crime. A24 is expanding to a nationwide distribution of the movie next weekend and is optimistic that this early success will translate across the country and the world. While this weekend could not have gone any better for the movie, it must also be remembered that the six theatres in New York and Los Angeles that played the movie this weekend are among the best in the country.
Where Are We as of 12/18/2025
After 50 weeks, the 2025 domestic box office stands virtually even with the amount earned by this point in 2024 and 76% of the amount from 2019.
