After four weekends as the #1 movie in the country, Disney and 20th Century’s AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH was expected to slip back into second place this weekend behind Sony’s dystopian horror sequel 28 YEARS LATER: THE BONE TEMPLE. In fact, this is not how the weekend unfolded with AVATAR 3 maintaining top spot by earning $13.3M, while 28 YEARS LATER 2 could only manage $13.0M in its debut. Despite it being a holiday weekend, with Martin Luther King Day coming on Monday, the total box office of $84.9M for the three days was not particularly exciting. It was only slightly better than last year when MLK weekend’s Friday-Sunday total was $77.7M. Still, all three weekends of 2026 have outperformed the matching weekends from last year.
We are predicting next weekend’s box office to be slightly lower than this weekend, with the two new wide releases being Amazon MGM’s sci-fi action film MERCY and Iconic Events’ horror flick RETURN TO SILENT HILL. Last year, the fourth weekend of the year earned only $64.5M, led by Lionsgate’s actioner FLIGHT RISK with $11.6M and Neon’s horror flick PRESENCE selling $3.3M in tickets in its first three days. Each successive weekend this month has earned less than the one before, which is the same pattern as last year. While 2026 is running somewhat ahead of last year, we are missing an opportunity to begin 2026 far ahead of the very dry January that the industry experienced last year.
What Has Happened to MLK Weekend?
Once upon a time, the Martin Luther King holiday weekend was a busy one for moviegoing, representing the first significant upturn after the Christmas releases had run their course. Ever since the pandemic, it has not played out that way. Here is a look at recent box office results for MLK weekend, counting up the 4-day Friday to Monday totals for the five years before the pandemic and the five years afterwards. The difference is considerable.
Our key takeaways are:
- 1) The box office earned over the five MLK weekends after the pandemic was $521.0M, compared to $949.5M for the five years before the pandemic. That is a 45% decrease.
- 2) The number of new wide releases on MLK weekend has also dropped, with the five years after the pandemic seeing eight new wide releases whereas the five years before the pandemic had 13. That is a decline of 39%.
- 3) The average for all new releases on MLK weekend also fell, coming in at $28.8M per year for the five years after the pandemic compared to $62.5M per year in the five years before the pandemic. That is a decline of 54%.
- 4) The average for each of the eight new releases in the five years after the pandemic is $18.0M, compared to $23.9M for the 13 new releases in five years before the pandemic. That is a decline of 25%.
We are well-aware that the box office after the pandemic has not returned to pre-pandemic levels. The total annual domestic box office for the years 2025, 2024 and 2023 has hovered in a range between $8.5B and $9B, which is roughly 20%-25% lower than the $11B+ seen in 2019, 2018 and 2017. So the 46% post pandemic decline over MLK weekend has been particularly acute. Why would MLK weekend see a drop off of 46% while the entire year is only down by 20%-25%? It could be a case of a self-fulfilling prophecy, with studios concluding that MLK weekend is not worthy of a high-profile new release. Disney, for example, has not released any movies over MLK weekend in the last ten years. All studios have released only eight wide release movies in the past 5 MLK weekends, compared to 13 for the five years before the pandemic.
On the upcoming Valentine’s Day weekend, five new movies will open wide, compared to only one this weekend. Perhaps it would have made more sense to shift one of the planned Valentine’s Day releases ahead to open this weekend instead. Unless studios release more, better movies on MLK weekend, the results are not likely to improve.
FIRST PLACE
In somewhat of a surprise, AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH held onto first place, grossing an additional $13.3M. Its run of first-place finished for five weekends in a row is equally due to the appeal of this movie and the weakness of its competition. While still a blockbuster, FIRE AND ASH has started lower and dropped faster than its two predecessors, which were even more successful. We had expected Sony’s 28 YEARS LATER: THE BONE TEMPLE to do better than it did, and outperform FIRE AND ASH this weekend. However, that is not how the actual results came in. Next weekend, we do expect FIRE AND ASH to relinquish first place to Amazon MGM’s AI-themed sci-fi movie MERCY in its opening weekend
In an interview this week with the online magazine Paste, James Cameron cited a “depressed” box office and said that he needs to, “figure out how to make these Avatar movies for less damn money.” Cameron is still uncommitted to moving forward with the two remaining chapters that he has planned for his franchise. Cameron is most at risk financially, since he owns the movies and Disney has the distribution and merchandise rights. As successful as the filmmaker has been, he will have a tall order to wring out cost from the movie-making process without sacrificing quality. Even if Cameron decides to forego future AVATAR movies and move on, he has already rewritten the record books with the three films to-date.
AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH vs. the AVATAR and AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER after 31 Days
SECOND PLACE
Sony’s horror sequel 28 YEARS LATER: THE BONE TEMPLE finished in second place with $13.0M in its opening weekend. This is the latest entry in the 28 franchise that has evolved from a scrappy post-9/11 indie flick to a prestigious franchise presenting an allegory of post-pandemic society. From a low-budget $8M experiment, 28 has spawned a four-movie series that caters to audiences seeking an uncomfortably real horror story. There have been four released movies in the 28 series, with a fifth expected in the near future. It started back in 2002 with 28 DAYS LATER, followed in 2007 with 28 WEEKS LATER. After a hiatus of 18 years, 28 YEARS LATER came out in June of last year and now there is 28 YEARS LATER: THE BONE TEMPLE.
All four films have been a collaboration between director Danny Boyle and screenwriter Alex Garland, who came together on 28 DAYS LATER by a convergence of timing, trust and creative restlessness. Garland was already a successful novelist (The Beach) when he wrote an original screenplay exploring what societal collapse would feel like after a catastrophe. His script wasn’t intended to be a traditional zombie movie, but rather a political and psychological story shaped by fears of media panic, authoritarian response and moral decay. The Rage virus was Garland’s way of literalizing human anger. Boyle, who directed the film adaptation of Garland’s The Beach, responded to the script’s urgency and rawness. He saw an opportunity to break away from polished studio filmmaking and embrace an aggressive, documentary-like style. Using early digital cameras, Boyle filmed London at dawn, when it was devoid of street life, capturing images that felt immediate, unsettling, and new. Their collaboration fused Garland’s intellectual provocations with Boyle’s kinetic visual instincts.
Neither intended for it to become a franchise. 28 DAYS LATER was conceived of as a standalone work. Only after its unexpected global success did a sequel materialize, from which the founding duo distancing themselves creatively. Their reunion decades later for 28 YEARS LATER reflects their belief that the story had matured enough and the world had changed enough to create space for a new chapter. The franchise exists because their original collaboration had struck a nerve and was worth returning to. Last year’s 28 YEARS LATER and this weekend’s 28 YEARS LATER: THE BONE TEMPLE are intended to be the first two installments in a 28 YEARS LATER trilogy of movies. Sony is moving forward with the third movie, with Alex Garland returning as its screenwriter and Cillian Murphy in talks to reprise his role from the original 28 DAYS LATER. While filmmaker Nia DaCosta stepped in to direct THE BONE TEMPLE and has been praised for her contribution to the series, Danny Boyle is also expected to return to direct the final movie, which does not yet have an announced title or release date.
28 YEARS LATER: THE BONE TEMPLE continues the storyline from 28 YEARS LATER, taking place in Britain where The Rage virus has faded into legend, but not forgotten. Decades after the collapse of society, isolated communities have reestablished a fragile existence on top of buried horrors. When signs emerge that the infection may be mutating rather than disappearing, survivors are forced to confront what they have sacrificed for the sake of stability. The story focuses on a new generation who uncover a forbidden site – the “Bone Temple” – where the past’s atrocities were entombed. The film explores whether humanity has truly healed or merely learned to live with its violence, asking if survival without memory is just another form of extinction.
Critics have appreciated all of these movies, and this one may be the best-received yet. On Rotten Tomatoes, THE BONE TEMPLE is carrying a 93% rating from critics and a 89% from audiences. Here are some samples of its reviews. Variety said, “For genre aficionados, it’s bold, mind-bending work which satisfies that so-often-frustrated craving for a zombie movie with brains.” The Associated Press feels that “The fourth entry in an ever-more engrossing franchise is absolutely bonkers — and a triumph. It mixes dark, queasy disembowelment and laugh-out-loud humor in a way that both subverts the genre and leads the way out of it too.” Empire Magazine offers up “Simpler, but also bolder and bloodier than its predecessor, The Bone Temple is a more-than-worthy sequel.” Not all critics loved it, with Time magazine concluding, “The Bone Temple is part satisfying triumph, part missed opportunity, and its pluses and minuses bump against one another in jangly discord.”
It cost $63M to make this movie, translating to a target of $158M in worldwide sales to break even. This is almost exactly the box office that 28 YEARS LATER produced. One challenge it may have is that the new movie has come out only seven months after 28 YEARS LATER, which was released June 20th in the heart of summer. Historically, January openings have had a much more muted response. The new film’s opening weekend at $13.0M is already 57% lower than the $30.0M that 28 YEARS LATER brought in over its first weekend.
28 YEARS LATER: THE BONE TEMPLE vs. 28 YEARS LATER
THIRD PLACE
ZOOTOPIA 2, in its eight weekend earned a third-place finish with $8.8M, a drop of only 12%. After 52 days in theatres, Disney’s animated hit has earned $390.0M domestically and an amazing $1.7B globally. It is on pace to cross $400M in domestic box office next weekend, which would make it the 11th highest-grossing animated movie in the domestic box office all-time, passing FROZEN from 2013 and just behind TOY STORY 3 from 2010. Globally, it has become the highest-grossing movie in the history of Walt Disney Animation Studios.
ZOOTOPIA 2 vs. ZOOTOPIA after 52 Days
FOURTH PLACE
Continuing its impressive run, Lionsgate’s THE HOUSEMAID finished its fifth weekend in fourth place on the box office charts, taking in $8.5M. This brings its 31-day total to $107.1M domestically and $247M worldwide. This picture’s profitability keeps expanding, with the current ratio of its worldwide box office to production cost hitting a satisfying 8.2 to 1. Lionsgate has announced a sequel entitled THE HOUSEMAID’S SECRET, which will be based on a follow-on novel by Freida McFadden, with director Paul Feig and star Sydney Sweeney returning. It is expected to be ready for release late this year or early next year. Meanwhile, Sydney Sweeney fans can tune into a new season of Euphoria which begins in April.
THE HOUSEMAID vs. A SIMPLE FAVOR after 31 Days
FIFTH PLACE
A24’s period hustler drama MARTY SUPREME returned to the top five this weekend by earning $5.5M, a modest decline of 27% from last weekend’s results. This takes its 31-day totals to $79.7M domestic, which makes it the highest grossing A24 movie of all time in the U.S. and Canada, edging out EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE’s domestic gross of $77.2M. Last Sunday, its star Timothee Chalamet took home the Golden Globe for Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy. This recognition must have played a role in the movie’s resurgence this weekend, returning into the top five. This is exactly what A24 had hoped to see when it began MARTY SUPREME’s release in only five theatres on December 19th. They expected the movie to be awards-worthy, and that it would find a broader audience once awards season kicked in in early January. Academy Award nominations will be announced on Thursday, January 22nd, and MARTY SUPREME is expected to be nominated for Best Picture and Chalamet to receive a nomination for Best Actor. This should keep the film in theatres until the end of February at least, which by that time would push it past $100M in domestic box office. A nagging little problem is that it cost $70M to make this film, which means that it will need to earn $175M worldwide to be profitable.
MARTY SUPREME vs. UNCUT GEMS after 31 Days
Where Are We as of 1/15/2026
After the first two weeks of 2026, the current year’s domestic box office stands at 125% compared with 2025, 122% compared with 2024 and 106% compared to 2023.
