Gower Street Analytics estimates 2026 Global box office will reach $35 billion. This would mark a second consecutive year of Global box office growth, +5% against current estimates for 2025. “We predict 2026 will be the highest grossing global year since 2019 ($42.3bn), topping the current high of 2023 ($33.9bn),” said Gower Street’s Chief Analyst Thomas Beranek, who led the work on the 2026 projection. “Especially in the markets driven by Hollywood product, we expect the most significant growth.” At current exchange rates, the 2026 estimate would remain -12% behind the average of the last three pre-pandemic years (2017-2019).
Gower Street announces its forward projection for the coming year each December. The projection utilizes data from Gower Street’s flagship FORECAST service based on the current release calendar alongside additional analyst assessment. “Our forecasting accuracy remains strong,” said Gower Street CEO Dimitrios Mitsinikos of the method used. “For 2024, our early forecast landed within 5% of the actual global year-end result, a year ahead of time. For 2025, we’re tracking toward a final global total within 2% of our original $33 billion forecast from 12 months ago.”
For 2026, the Domestic (North American) market is projected to finish 11% up on 2025 (est.) at approximately $9.9 billion. This is -14% against the 2017-2019 average.
The International market (excluding China) is predicted to reach approximately $18.0 billion, 5% ahead of 2025 (est.). This is -11% against the 2017-2019 average at current exchange rates. Within this, the three key regions are estimated as follows:
- EMEA $10.05bn (+7% vs 2025 est.; -9% vs 2017-2019 ave)
- Asia Pacific (exc. China) $5.3bn (0% vs 2025 est.; -15% vs 2017-2019 ave)
- Latin America $2.65bn (+9% vs 2025 est.; -5% vs 2017-2019 ave)
“There is a robust franchise-led release calendar for 2026 with new instalments in massively popular film series including AVENGERS, SPIDER-MAN, TOY STORY, DUNE, STAR WARS, SUPER MARIO BROS, MINIONS, JUMANJI, SCREAM, THE FOCKERS, and HUNGER GAMES,” said Rob Mitchell, Gower Street’s Director of Theatrical Insights.
“But there are also many potentially huge hits among non-sequels, including musical biopic MICHAEL; the live action version of MOANA; and new titles from legendary blockbuster directors Christopher Nolan (THE ODYSSEY) and Steven Spielberg (DISCLOSURE DAY), among many others. Audiences will be spoilt for choice.”
Following a year of ups and downs, which generated both the biggest local title of all-time (NE ZHA 2) and the #2 import title ever (ZOOTOPIA 2), but which also suffered long periods of weaker performance, China is conservatively estimated at $7.1 billion (-4% vs 2025 est.). However, due to the limited release calendar at this stage, it remains the hardest market to predict.
It should be noted that this is a very early prediction, and Gower Street would expect to see further changes to the release calendar result in some fluctuation. There are also several Untitled studio releases currently dated, which, as more becomes known about these titles, could impact projections. The projection can also not account for unexpected global events.
Please note: Figures shown in the stacked bar graph show US$ figures at historical exchange rates for years before 2025 and at current exchange rates for Forecast years (2025-2026). Year-to-year comparisons within the text re-calculate previous years using current exchange rates for comparison.
For more information, contact:
Rob Mitchell
Director of Theatrical Insights, Gower Street Analytics rm@gower.st
About Gower Street Analytics Ltd:
Gower Street Analytics is the global leader in theatrical predictive analytics. Founded in 2015 and partnered with Comscore, Gower Street enables the film industry to best utilize global theatrical market data to maximize business potential through its proprietary FORECAST box office simulation platform, currently covering over 85 markets. In 2023, Gower Street launched its groundbreaking WKN, D, D, and FFWD reports looking at Globalregionalon, all and market projections for the weekend ahead and key title projections for the upcoming 18 months, respectively.
