After a Thanksgiving stuffed with films, but with much less boxoffice gravy than in past years, it’s good Santa’s on his way.
Christmas is exhibitors’ last chance to recover from the studios’ crippling product meltdown. James Cameron’s AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER, opening 12/16 from Disney/20th Century, may not make up for all the damage, but it should, at least, end 2022 on a festive note.
Some Hollywood handicappers are cautiously projecting $150M+ while others are $150-175M. A2’s 190 minutes running time is a factor in holding down predictions since, typically, very long movies lose a showing daily. Playing on more multiplex screens makes up for some of that, but being overlong does hurt.
The original AVATAR, which only ran 162 minutes, reportedly cost $237M to produce. It opened on 12/18/09 to $77M and (with reissues) did $785.2M domestic + $2.1B international = $2.92B worldwide.
A2, which reportedly cost $400M to produce, is tracking through the roof and could overperform with, perhaps, $175-200M. First-choice scores for older men are already 17 points over the norm while younger men are 12 points over the norm. Older women are 15 points over the norm & younger women are 13 points over the norm.
Sony/Marvel’s SPIDER-MAN: NO WAY HOME kicked off 12/17/21 to $260.1M, in darker pandemic days. It ran just 148 minutes and was fanboys driven, dropping 67.5% in weekend two. A2’s adult appeal should give it longer legs and its tracking points to a stronger start than is now expected.