Summer at the movies is officially underway—and June 2025 is where the season’s momentum is truly tested. From animated epics and franchise spinoffs to original Pixar charm and horror sequels, the June 2025 film lineup packs variety, hype, and risk in equal measure. Studios are betting big on established IPs and smart counterprogramming, while industry analysts are tracking each title’s early returns to see who’s winning the summer movie releases 2025 race.
So, how do things look at the box office? We’ve broken down the top June 2025 movies—from big bets like How to Train Your Dragon (live-action) to dark horses like M3GAN 2.0—with updated insight, early performance data, and projections.
Here’s your full domestic box office forecast for the month, one contender at a time.
Box Office Contenders – Who’s Leading the Pack?
Ballerina (2025) – From Franchise Favorite to Mixed Results
Studio: Lionsgate
Opening Weekend (Actual): $25.0M
Prediction (Before Release): $40M+
Current Outlook: Moderate legs, cautious optimism
Once hailed as a top contender in the June 2025 movie slate, Ballerina—the John Wick spinoff starring Ana de Armas—opened below expectations. With a $90M production budget and high franchise expectations, the film’s $25M domestic debut ranks second-lowest in the series, despite glowing audience scores (94% RT). Critics were more mixed, with reviews ranging from “flamboyantly fun” to “stylistically flat.”
Still, the broader Wick universe continues to attract audiences, and Ballerina has the potential to hold steady in the coming weeks, especially if word-of-mouth travels well. But with a breakeven point of $225M worldwide, profitability is far from guaranteed. This is one of those box office predictions that’s already shifting with real-time data.
How to Train Your Dragon (Live-Action) (2025)
Studio: Universal Pictures International
Opening Projection: $50M–$65M
Current Buzz: High family interest, strong franchise nostalgia
Easily one of the most anticipated upcoming Hollywood releases, this live-action retelling of DreamWorks’ beloved trilogy has all the ingredients for success. Early movie opening weekend projections peg it as June’s top earner, with Universal rolling out an aggressive marketing campaign. A cross-generational fanbase, summer break timing, and cinematic spectacle make this a textbook summer tentpole.
If HTTYD delivers both emotionally and visually, it could ride the same word-of-mouth wave that propelled The Super Mario Bros. Movie to blockbuster status.
Elio (2025)
Studio: Disney / Pixar
Opening Projection: $40M+
Current Buzz: Steady family interest, modest competition
Elio is Pixar’s latest venture into heartfelt sci-fi, and its performance will test Pixar’s post-Inside Out 2 momentum. As part of the June 2025 film lineup, it’s well-positioned for families seeking something original and emotional.
While not carrying the same franchise weight as previous hits, Elio benefits from Pixar’s brand trust and a lack of animated competition. The box office predictions lean toward a modest start with long legs, especially if the emotional core resonates with parents and kids alike.
28 Years Later (2025)
Studio: Sony Pictures Entertainment
Opening Projection: $25M–$35M
Current Buzz: Cult following, critical curiosity
Danny Boyle’s return to the 28 Days Later universe has horror fans locked in. While not expected to dominate in raw numbers, 28 Years Later has strong potential to break out thanks to genre appeal, solid reviews, and nostalgia for the original film.
June horror releases tend to overperform if they land their tone—see A Quiet Place or The Conjuring. If word-of-mouth is strong, expect this one to quietly build.
M3GAN 2.0 (2025)
Studio: Universal Pictures
Opening Projection: $20M–$30M
Current Buzz: Solid franchise familiarity, online meme traction
The original M3GAN was a viral hit, and the sequel is leaning into its campy horror edge. Blumhouse has a track record of squeezing maximum returns out of mid-budget horror, and while M3GAN 2.0 may not break records, it’s a smart counter-programming play.
As part of the broader summer movie releases 2025, it diversifies the genre mix and appeals to Gen Z and horror fans who might skip bigger blockbusters.
Franchises vs. Originals – Who’s Winning June?
The pendulum swings predictably: franchise films pull audiences with brand recognition, but originals like Elio still show there’s appetite for fresh stories. June 2025 is proof that box office success isn’t just about IP—it’s about timing, tone, and tapping into what viewers are craving right now.
So far, spinoffs like Ballerina have delivered mixed results, while the hype for How to Train Your Dragon and Elio continues to build. Horror remains a wild card. If even one of the titles overperforms, it could reshape the domestic box office forecast for the rest of summer.
What the Industry’s Watching
Analysts agree: June 2025 is a litmus test for theatrical consistency. While March and April delivered standout wins (Inside Out 2, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning), June is all about breadth—can multiple genres win simultaneously?
The summer movie releases 2025 are spaced smartly, allowing each title room to breathe. If Pixar and Universal land their swings, and horror holds, expect solid cumulative revenue—even if individual debuts are uneven. That’s the cautious optimism floating around the industry right now.
Final Takeaway: A Summer of Surprises
June’s not just crowded—it’s dynamic. With the June 2025 movie lineup showcasing everything from dragon fantasy and assassin ballet to alien heartwarmers and rage-filled zombies, we’re watching a fascinating box office experiment unfold.
While How to Train Your Dragon looks to dominate, Ballerina’s real-world results remind us how predictions and reality often diverge. Keep your eyes on Elio for potential sleeper status, and don’t be surprised if horror steals a weekend before the month’s out.
June 2025 may not rewrite the box office rulebook, but it’s putting every genre to the test.
